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2016-02-01 | 2015-10-02 | [] | binary | [["2015-10-02", 0.69], ["2015-11-03", 0.72], ["2015-11-03", 0.75], ["2015-11-04", 0.54], ["2015-11-04", 0.54], ["2015-11-06", 0.555], ["2015-12-03", 0.554], ["2015-12-03", 0.574], ["2015-12-03", 0.58], ["2015-12-03", 0.574], ["2015-12-05", 0.595], ["2015-12-05", 0.61], ["2015-12-09", 0.612], ["2015-12-10", 0.582], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) re-opened in mid September after a significant upgrade.
Designed with 10x greater sensitivity and a wider range of covered frequencies than the original LIGO, advanced LIGO should, according to its designers, have an "enhanced physics reach that du... | true | 2015-12-15 | Will advanced LIGO announce discovery of gravitational waves by Jan. 31 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-02-28 | 2015-10-26 | ["https://sma.nasa.gov/LaunchVehicle/assets/spacex-falcon-9-v1.2-data-sheet.pdf"] | binary | [["2015-10-26", 0.84], ["2015-12-03", 0.795], ["2015-12-05", 0.787], ["2015-12-05", 0.765], ["2015-12-08", 0.782], ["2015-12-09", 0.772], ["2015-12-09", 0.793], ["2015-12-10", 0.784], ["2015-12-11", 0.774], ["2015-12-16", 0.769], ["2015-12-16", 0.769], ["2015-12-17", 0.759], ["2015-12-17", 0.759], ["2015-12-20", 0.758]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets are designed to be re-used after landing vertically on a floating barge-based landing site. To date, these landings have not been fully successful.
Will SpaceX, by Feb 28, 2016, land a Falcon 9 well enough so that it sustains little enough damage that it can be re-used?
As of mid-November, the... | true | 2016-01-30 | Will SpaceX successfully land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge by February 28, 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-23 | 2015-10-26 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-04", 0.12], ["2016-01-05", 0.083], ["2016-01-09", 0.114], ["2016-01-12", 0.124], ["2016-01-19", 0.117], ["2016-01-20", 0.112], ["2016-01-23", 0.132], ["2016-01-26", 0.136], ["2016-01-28", 0.201], ["2016-01-31", 0.204], ["2016-02-02", 0.199], ["2016-02-04", 0.211], ["2016-02-06", 0.207], ["2016-02-09", 0.208]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Lockheed Martin's Skunkworks has publicly announced that it is developing compact fusion energy generation devices.
In their announcemend dated 10/15/14 they suggested a one-year timeframe for developing a test, and a 5-year timeframe for a prototype device. Similar predictions were made in a recent article.
As of 1/2/... | true | 2016-10-18 | Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-06-16 | 2015-10-26 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-09", 0.3], ["2015-12-09", 0.233], ["2015-12-09", 0.25], ["2015-12-09", 0.24], ["2015-12-10", 0.25], ["2015-12-10", 0.254], ["2015-12-12", 0.251], ["2015-12-12", 0.248], ["2015-12-15", 0.266], ["2015-12-21", 0.264], ["2015-12-21", 0.265], ["2015-12-22", 0.267], ["2016-01-01", 0.27], ["2016-01-03", 0.319], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The FAA has for several years been developing a set of regulations governing the use of unmanned aeriel systems (UASs, or "drones"), but has repeatedly missed deadlines to finalize those rules. Current regulations allow consumer use of "model aircraft" under certain conditions, and it was recently announced that one of... | true | 2016-04-15 | The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-12-01 | 2015-10-26 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-12", 0.8], ["2015-11-12", 0.8], ["2015-12-03", 0.825], ["2015-12-05", 0.833], ["2015-12-06", 0.825], ["2015-12-07", 0.71], ["2015-12-07", 0.708], ["2015-12-09", 0.713], ["2015-12-09", 0.713], ["2015-12-09", 0.648], ["2015-12-10", 0.661], ["2015-12-10", 0.674], ["2015-12-10", 0.674], ["2015-12-11", 0.681], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The cost of sequencing a human genome has been falling at a rate considerably faster than Moore's law since the first genome was sequenced in 2001, according to the NIH.
This cost reduction has, however, occurred in fits and starts, with periods of plateau punctuated by significant cost reductions.
Will the cost platea... | true | 2016-02-15 | Will the cost of sequencing a human genome fall below $500 by mid 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-30 | 2015-10-26 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-03", 0.2], ["2015-11-04", 0.28], ["2015-12-03", 0.22], ["2015-12-05", 0.21], ["2015-12-05", 0.198], ["2015-12-09", 0.217], ["2015-12-10", 0.207], ["2015-12-15", 0.21], ["2015-12-20", 0.204], ["2015-12-21", 0.198], ["2016-01-01", 0.189], ["2016-01-05", 0.194], ["2016-01-05", 0.171], ["2016-01-09", 0.173], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/8/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.
In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been reduced from 70,000,000 to 246, and down to 12 with other assumptions.
The question is resolved positively if a pr... | true | 2016-07-01 | Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-08-23 | 2015-10-30 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-02", 0.69], ["2015-11-14", 0.445], ["2015-12-03", 0.497], ["2015-12-05", 0.51], ["2015-12-06", 0.498], ["2015-12-07", 0.45], ["2015-12-09", 0.439], ["2015-12-09", 0.439], ["2015-12-09", 0.409], ["2015-12-10", 0.441], ["2015-12-20", 0.46], ["2015-12-20", 0.472], ["2015-12-21", 0.438], ["2015-12-21", 0.432], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/9/ | In late 2014 Google [announced] a deep learning system that could automatically generate a descriptive caption of an arbitrary photograph.
A significantly greater challenge is to provide an understandable and comparably accurate description of the events taking place in a short video (without audio included). | Science & Tech | Will a working version of such a system be publicly announced and demonstrated by July 1, 2016? For success, the system should act on a diverse set of short videos similar to these, and should be comparable in accuracy to the accuracy of Google's image captioning when it was first announced. | true | 2016-02-01 | Will AI systems that can generate a synopsis of a viewed video soon exist? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-02-15 | 2015-11-02 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-03", 0.75], ["2015-11-04", 0.65], ["2015-11-06", 0.5]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) is an experimental device built at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics to test the "stellarator" deisgn of nuclear fusion reactor.
The primary benefit of the stellarator design is to allow prolonged confinement, relative to Tokomak designs that can run only in short pulses. The W7-X w... | true | 2015-11-30 | Will the experimental Wendelstein 7-X stellarator fusion device be a success? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-18 | 2015-11-02 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-19", 0.25], ["2015-12-03", 0.225], ["2015-12-05", 0.217], ["2015-12-06", 0.213], ["2015-12-08", 0.22], ["2015-12-09", 0.284], ["2015-12-10", 0.286], ["2015-12-10", 0.29], ["2015-12-12", 0.292], ["2015-12-21", 0.278], ["2015-12-21", 0.273], ["2015-12-24", 0.251], ["2015-12-24", 0.251], ["2015-12-27", 0.232], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | While it is very difficult to combine quantum mechanics and gravity into a single theory of quantum gravity, it is widely believed that gravity is quantum mechanical -- in particular, that the gravitational field can exist in a quantum superposition of two configurations. However, this has never been directly tested. (... | true | 2016-05-15 | Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-03-01 | 2015-11-02 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-02", 0.2], ["2015-11-03", 0.3], ["2015-11-04", 0.25], ["2015-11-06", 0.262], ["2015-11-09", 0.24], ["2015-12-03", 0.267], ["2015-12-05", 0.293], ["2015-12-05", 0.325], ["2015-12-07", 0.333], ["2015-12-07", 0.354], ["2015-12-09", 0.391], ["2015-12-09", 0.4], ["2015-12-10", 0.403], ["2015-12-19", 0.392], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/13/ | Although far from human level in many respects, artificially intelligent (AI) systems and autonomous agents of greatly increasing sophistication are entering society in the form of, for example, automated trading, autonomous vehicles, robots, and autonomous weapons.
Such systems are beginning to make "decisions" that c... | Security & Defense | By March 1, 2016, will one of the top 25 news outlets by media traffic publish a story reporting that a "robot", "autonomous" system, or "AI" system, though an error or "choice", or failure to act appropriately, has directly caused physical harm to come to a human? | true | 2015-12-31 | In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-01-15 | 2015-11-03 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-03", 0.32], ["2015-11-03", 0.32], ["2015-11-04", 0.36], ["2015-11-04", 0.377], ["2015-11-04", 0.347], ["2015-11-13", 0.262], ["2015-11-13", 0.262], ["2015-12-03", 0.29], ["2015-12-05", 0.308], ["2015-12-06", 0.35], ["2015-12-07", 0.381], ["2015-12-08", 0.349], ["2015-12-09", 0.349], ["2015-12-09", 0.349], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/14/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | NASA's Kepler Mission discovered thousands of planets, but the mission ended in May 2013, when a second of the spacecraft's four reaction wheels failed.
The K2 Mission has repurposed the Kepler spacecraft to perform successive 80-day photometric observations of selected star fields in Earth's ecliptic plane. For bright... | true | 2016-01-01 | Will NASA's K2 Mission detect a potentially habitable planet in 2015? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-14 | 2015-11-04 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-09", 0.08], ["2015-11-26", 0.045], ["2015-12-03", 0.043], ["2015-12-05", 0.035], ["2015-12-06", 0.03], ["2015-12-07", 0.057], ["2015-12-08", 0.064], ["2015-12-08", 0.064], ["2015-12-09", 0.062], ["2015-12-09", 0.062], ["2015-12-09", 0.064], ["2015-12-10", 0.079], ["2015-12-10", 0.079], ["2015-12-11", 0.08], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Hawking's famous black hole information paradox, first formulated in his 1976 paper, concerns a conflict between the reversibility of known fundamental physical laws and the irreversibility of black hole formation and evaporation.
The Standard Model of particle physics, General Relativity, quantum and classical mechani... | true | 2016-02-01 | Does Stephen Hawking's September paper contain the essence of a solution to the black hole information paradox? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-06-02 | 2015-11-05 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-06", 0.25], ["2015-11-07", 0.175], ["2015-12-03", 0.157], ["2015-12-05", 0.148], ["2015-12-06", 0.138], ["2015-12-09", 0.143], ["2015-12-09", 0.14], ["2015-12-10", 0.14], ["2015-12-11", 0.138], ["2015-12-20", 0.133], ["2016-01-01", 0.137], ["2016-01-04", 0.143], ["2016-01-04", 0.144], ["2016-01-05", 0.134], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/16/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In graph theory, two graphs are isomorphic if there is a one-to-one correspondence between their vertex sets (details here). The computational task of determining whether two graphs are isomorphic is known as the graph isomorphism problem. The problem arises in many applications, for example, in electronic design autom... | true | 2016-05-01 | Is Graph Isomorphism solvable in Polynomial Time? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-07-10 | 2015-11-06 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-19", 0.1], ["2015-12-03", 0.125], ["2015-12-05", 0.133], ["2015-12-06", 0.15], ["2015-12-07", 0.13], ["2015-12-07", 0.133], ["2015-12-08", 0.146], ["2015-12-09", 0.143], ["2015-12-10", 0.14], ["2015-12-11", 0.14], ["2015-12-16", 0.137], ["2015-12-20", 0.138], ["2015-12-23", 0.132], ["2015-12-23", 0.132], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Superparticles are partners to the standard model model particles such as protons, electrons, and photons, which would exist in supersymmetric models of fundamental physics.
Looking for signatures of supersymmetry is one of the primary goals of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which restarted recently for its second ru... | true | 2016-01-15 | Will superparticles be discovered at the Large Hadron Collider by July 8, 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-07-10 | 2015-11-07 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-19", 0.75], ["2015-12-03", 0.775], ["2015-12-05", 0.8], ["2015-12-06", 0.802], ["2015-12-07", 0.702], ["2015-12-07", 0.685], ["2015-12-08", 0.707], ["2015-12-08", 0.707], ["2015-12-09", 0.682], ["2015-12-10", 0.673], ["2015-12-10", 0.678], ["2015-12-11", 0.64], ["2015-12-11", 0.635], ["2015-12-11", 0.614], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | A major recent advance in genetic engineering has occurred in the past several years with the discovery of CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats), a bacterial DNA sequence that codes for a protein (Cas9) and RNA combination that can locate a specific DNA sequence and splice the DNA strand at... | true | 2016-02-16 | By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-02-18 | 2015-11-08 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-08", 0.08], ["2015-12-09", 0.095], ["2015-12-09", 0.107], ["2015-12-09", 0.118], ["2015-12-09", 0.134], ["2015-12-10", 0.142], ["2015-12-10", 0.153], ["2015-12-10", 0.159], ["2015-12-12", 0.16], ["2015-12-12", 0.163], ["2015-12-12", 0.164], ["2015-12-12", 0.164], ["2015-12-15", 0.163], ["2015-12-20", 0.162],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | There has been significant interest in the imminent advent of autonomous lethal weapons, which would select, engage, and harm targets that they have chosen according to some pre-assigned mission or criteria. Most major military powers formally claim to eschew such weapons, but there is little question that they are und... | true | 2016-01-01 | Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-06-07 | 2015-11-08 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-12", 0.6], ["2015-11-23", 0.52], ["2015-12-03", 0.447], ["2015-12-05", 0.422], ["2015-12-05", 0.398], ["2015-12-07", 0.432], ["2015-12-08", 0.448], ["2015-12-10", 0.436], ["2015-12-11", 0.432], ["2015-12-16", 0.427], ["2015-12-19", 0.413], ["2015-12-22", 0.423], ["2015-12-24", 0.435], ["2016-01-01", 0.418], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | A major recent advance in genetic engineering has occurred in the past several years with the discovery of CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats), a bacterial DNA sequence that codes for a protein (Cas9) and RNA combination that can locate a specific DNA sequence and splice the DNA strand at... | true | 2016-06-07 | Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-11-09 | 2015-11-12 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-01", 0.21], ["2016-01-05", 0.189], ["2016-01-09", 0.199], ["2016-01-09", 0.191], ["2016-01-17", 0.188], ["2016-01-20", 0.212], ["2016-01-22", 0.19], ["2016-01-25", 0.186], ["2016-01-28", 0.227], ["2016-01-31", 0.226], ["2016-02-03", 0.224], ["2016-02-05", 0.224], ["2016-02-08", 0.216], ["2016-02-10", 0.214],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Until Barack Obama, every single US president has been a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man. Will we revert to that trend?
This is an excercise in combining probabilities.
At the time of publication, we have three major contenders for the Democratic nomination: Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley.
Of these, only O'Malley wo... | true | 2016-11-02 | Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man? | metaculus | 1 |
2015-12-16 | 2015-11-13 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-17", 0.05], ["2015-11-23", 0.125]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/30/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Quantum computers make use of the properties of quantum mechanical (as opposed to classical) systems to solve certain problems much more efficiently than a classical computer can.
For example, using a quantum computer, large numbers could in principle be factored into primes using Shor's algorithm in polynomial time, v... | true | 2015-12-01 | Will Google make a "watershed" announcement about quantum computing in early December? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-02 | 2015-11-15 | [] | binary | [["2015-11-26", 0.05], ["2015-11-26", 0.463], ["2015-12-03", 0.46], ["2015-12-03", 0.448], ["2015-12-05", 0.446], ["2015-12-05", 0.43], ["2015-12-09", 0.423], ["2015-12-09", 0.395], ["2015-12-10", 0.376], ["2015-12-10", 0.376], ["2015-12-16", 0.379], ["2015-12-17", 0.372], ["2015-12-19", 0.42], ["2015-12-20", 0.391], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/31/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Because many formulations of quantum mechanics explicitly include the "observer" (or at least "observation"), the place of conscious observers in the foundations of quantum mechanics has been a frequent, and quite controversial, issue.
Conversely, difficult questions regarding how conscious or mental activity is relate... | true | 2016-04-01 | Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-06-30 | 2015-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-04", 0.66], ["2015-12-05", 0.57], ["2015-12-05", 0.43], ["2015-12-06", 0.385], ["2015-12-06", 0.368], ["2015-12-07", 0.34], ["2015-12-09", 0.337], ["2015-12-09", 0.337], ["2015-12-09", 0.312], ["2015-12-09", 0.306], ["2015-12-16", 0.325], ["2015-12-20", 0.322], ["2015-12-21", 0.321], ["2015-12-23", 0.308], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/32/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Egyptologist Nicholas Reeves has put together a case that King Tut was buried in an expanded entryway to Queen Nefertiti's tomb, and that her tomb remains undisturbed through a (proposed) sealed doorway.
In September, Reeves, along with Mamdouh Eldamaty, the Egypt's Minister of Antiquities, were granted permission to e... | true | 2016-02-29 | Is Nefertiti's tomb adjacent to King Tut's? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-05-01 | 2015-12-07 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-01", 0.98], ["2016-01-01", 0.97], ["2016-01-01", 0.98], ["2016-01-02", 0.977], ["2016-01-02", 0.97], ["2016-01-02", 0.962], ["2016-01-03", 0.93], ["2016-01-03", 0.925], ["2016-01-03", 0.923], ["2016-01-04", 0.929], ["2016-01-09", 0.934], ["2016-01-10", 0.931], ["2016-01-11", 0.901], ["2016-01-11", 0.905], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/33/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Note: This question is part of the Metaculus tutorial series on the art and science of making successful quantitative predictions. Additional useful information can be found at the Metaculus FAQ.
Most new internet sites don't generate much interest. If a site can bring in over a thousand active users in a few months, i... | true | 2016-03-01 | [Tutorial:] Will Metaculus have over one thousand users signed up by May 1, 2016. | metaculus | 1 |
2016-12-05 | 2015-12-10 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-15", 0.15], ["2015-12-15", 0.175], ["2015-12-15", 0.207], ["2015-12-17", 0.21], ["2015-12-17", 0.216], ["2015-12-20", 0.225], ["2015-12-20", 0.221], ["2015-12-21", 0.226], ["2015-12-21", 0.229], ["2015-12-31", 0.226], ["2016-01-01", 0.215], ["2016-01-03", 0.252], ["2016-01-05", 0.308], ["2016-01-13", 0.294],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/36/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Godel's first incompleteness theorem, one of the most celebrated results in mathematics, asserts that in sufficiently complex axiomatic formal systems there will be statements that are knowably true, yet unprovable within the formal system.
A related result due to Turing proves that the halting problem (of determining ... | true | 2016-06-01 | Are there physical systems with properties that are impossible in principle to predict? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-01-16 | 2015-12-10 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-10", 0.02], ["2015-12-10", 0.015], ["2015-12-10", 0.02], ["2015-12-11", 0.022], ["2015-12-11", 0.022], ["2015-12-12", 0.022], ["2015-12-12", 0.022], ["2015-12-12", 0.022], ["2015-12-14", 0.026], ["2015-12-15", 0.029], ["2015-12-15", 0.027], ["2015-12-19", 0.025], ["2015-12-20", 0.032], ["2015-12-20", 0.032],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/37/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | On December 8th 2015, two papers independently suggesting the possible discoveries of new planet-sized objects in the outer reaches of our own solar system were posted to the astro-ph pre-print server.
The first paper -- submitted for publication, but as-yet not peer reviewed -- describes the serendipitous detection, u... | true | 2015-12-31 | Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-20 | 2015-12-15 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-15", 0.17], ["2015-12-15", 0.18], ["2015-12-15", 0.123], ["2015-12-15", 0.155], ["2015-12-17", 0.174], ["2015-12-17", 0.162], ["2015-12-17", 0.161], ["2015-12-17", 0.14], ["2015-12-17", 0.124], ["2015-12-18", 0.111], ["2015-12-19", 0.101], ["2015-12-20", 0.099], ["2015-12-20", 0.099], ["2015-12-20", 0.096], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/38/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Names and labels carry a heavy freight and they get people worked up. The agonized IAU deliberations vis-à-vis Pluto’s status as a "plutoid" or a planet or a dwarf planet constituted by far the biggest planet news of 2006. The issue of what to call an astronomical object can have important consequences. It’s unlikely t... | true | 2016-01-15 | Will the IAU-sanctioned Exoplanet Names come into regular use? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-08-15 | 2015-12-16 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-16", 0.18], ["2015-12-17", 0.076], ["2015-12-18", 0.097], ["2015-12-20", 0.099], ["2015-12-21", 0.107], ["2015-12-27", 0.1], ["2015-12-31", 0.093], ["2016-01-04", 0.11], ["2016-01-05", 0.139], ["2016-01-08", 0.169], ["2016-01-11", 0.168], ["2016-01-20", 0.17], ["2016-01-21", 0.182], ["2016-01-23", 0.179], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/41/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | On December 15th, 2015, two teams of physicists at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN announced the possible, tentative, detection of a new elementary particle. News story here.
The teams (comprised of the CMS and ATLAS consortia) have been accumulating data from the energetic collisions that occur when twin 6.5 TeV pro... | true | 2016-06-01 | Has a new boson been discovered at the LHC? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-03-21 | 2015-12-19 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-19", 0.82], ["2015-12-19", 0.795], ["2015-12-20", 0.697], ["2015-12-20", 0.592], ["2015-12-20", 0.614], ["2015-12-20", 0.622], ["2015-12-20", 0.626], ["2015-12-20", 0.626], ["2015-12-20", 0.633], ["2015-12-21", 0.645], ["2015-12-21", 0.623], ["2015-12-21", 0.642], ["2015-12-21", 0.642], ["2015-12-21", 0.642]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/43/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The development of the new IEX exchange was a central theme in Michael Lewis' controversial 2014 book Flash Boys, which describes aspects of computerized high-frequency trading of stocks.
A stated aim of the IEX Exchange is to provide a level playing field for all market participants through the implementation of a 350... | true | 2016-03-20 | Will the SEC approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-14 | 2015-12-19 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-21", 0.75], ["2015-12-21", 0.723], ["2015-12-23", 0.718], ["2015-12-23", 0.736], ["2015-12-26", 0.717], ["2015-12-26", 0.711], ["2015-12-31", 0.704], ["2016-01-01", 0.697], ["2016-01-05", 0.702], ["2016-01-05", 0.692], ["2016-01-07", 0.647], ["2016-01-09", 0.644], ["2016-01-17", 0.66], ["2016-01-19", 0.678],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/44/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | "Gene drives" are phenomena in a species' population in which one version of a gene, or allele, is probabilistically favored over other alleles that are otherwise equally favored by fitness. A gene drive in a particular allele shows up as a bias for the corresponding phenotype in the offspring. Consider two parents wit... | true | 2016-05-15 | By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-03-15 | 2015-12-20 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-23", 0.25], ["2015-12-23", 0.17], ["2015-12-23", 0.292], ["2015-12-26", 0.354], ["2015-12-26", 0.329], ["2015-12-26", 0.325], ["2015-12-27", 0.3], ["2015-12-28", 0.31], ["2015-12-28", 0.31], ["2015-12-29", 0.327], ["2015-12-29", 0.309], ["2015-12-31", 0.308], ["2016-01-01", 0.3], ["2016-01-01", 0.3], ["2016-... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/45/ | The [game of Go] originated in China more than 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) make it an excellent metric for the... | Science & Tech | This question is positively resolved if, in 2016, an AI with no handicap beats a professional human player in an official game of Go. | true | 2016-03-01 | In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-09 | 2015-12-22 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-31", 0.2], ["2015-12-31", 0.16], ["2015-12-31", 0.137], ["2016-01-01", 0.146], ["2016-01-01", 0.146], ["2016-01-02", 0.153], ["2016-01-03", 0.156], ["2016-01-03", 0.212], ["2016-01-04", 0.215], ["2016-01-05", 0.201], ["2016-01-05", 0.254], ["2016-01-06", 0.245], ["2016-01-07", 0.264], ["2016-01-08", 0.267], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/46/ | Self-driving cars (SDC) are [anticipated] to become increasingly integrated into the driving population in the coming years; greatly reducing accident rates, giving driving independence to the impaired, and reducing fuel consumption are a few major benefits (see more [here] and [here.]) [Google] and [Tesla] in the U.S.... | Science & Tech | Will there be a car commercially-available in at least two US states with an MSRP of less than $75,000 and delivery date within 2018, that can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?
(updated 2/20 to clarify resolution criteri... | true | 2016-03-01 | Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-30 | 2015-12-23 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-23", 0.4], ["2015-12-23", 0.38], ["2015-12-23", 0.32], ["2015-12-23", 0.405], ["2015-12-23", 0.474], ["2015-12-26", 0.45], ["2015-12-26", 0.483], ["2015-12-26", 0.436], ["2015-12-26", 0.421], ["2015-12-26", 0.441], ["2015-12-27", 0.472], ["2015-12-27", 0.462], ["2015-12-28", 0.467], ["2015-12-30", 0.493], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/47/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the "fear gauge". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.
To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corre... | true | 2016-01-31 | Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-11-06 | 2015-12-27 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-29", 0.15], ["2015-12-29", 0.15], ["2015-12-30", 0.13], ["2015-12-31", 0.22], ["2015-12-31", 0.19], ["2016-01-01", 0.198], ["2016-01-01", 0.178], ["2016-01-05", 0.185], ["2016-01-05", 0.216], ["2016-01-08", 0.207], ["2016-01-12", 0.27], ["2016-01-19", 0.268], ["2016-01-19", 0.275], ["2016-01-20", 0.318], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/48/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The decreasing cost and difficulty of genetic engineering have opened up a number of new research fields. One that is highly controversial is "gain of function" (GoF) pathogen research, in which researchers deliberately engineer existing pathogens to increase their virulence, transmissibility, or other qualities.
The g... | true | 2016-03-01 | Will the US restore funding for research that creates more dangerous versions of Influenza, MERS and SARS? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-20 | 2015-12-30 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-30", 0.73], ["2015-12-30", 0.705], ["2015-12-31", 0.653], ["2015-12-31", 0.68], ["2016-01-01", 0.668], ["2016-01-01", 0.657], ["2016-01-01", 0.656], ["2016-01-05", 0.61], ["2016-01-08", 0.547], ["2016-01-09", 0.529], ["2016-01-10", 0.548], ["2016-01-12", 0.553], ["2016-01-14", 0.563]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/49/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The catalog of known extrasolar planets is growing rapidly. At last count, NASA's Kepler Mission has generated 4,696 high-quality planet candidates, and thousands more are on the way from NASA's K2 and TESS Missions.
The surge in the planetary census has been almost exclusively driven by transit detections, in which th... | true | 2016-01-15 | Low-mass Doppler-detected planet in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-04-15 | 2015-12-31 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-31", 0.68], ["2015-12-31", 0.66], ["2015-12-31", 0.557], ["2016-01-01", 0.56], ["2016-01-01", 0.548], ["2016-01-01", 0.488], ["2016-01-01", 0.512], ["2016-01-01", 0.553], ["2016-01-01", 0.519], ["2016-01-01", 0.526], ["2016-01-02", 0.494], ["2016-01-03", 0.485], ["2016-01-04", 0.442], ["2016-01-05", 0.413], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/50/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | California is in the midst of a severe drought, following several years of well-below-average rain and snowfall.
There is cause for optimism, however. There is currently a band of warm ocean water in the central and east-central Pacific associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The associated meteorological con... | true | 2016-01-31 | Will the California drought ease significantly this Winter? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-01 | 2015-12-31 | [] | binary | [["2015-12-31", 0.33], ["2015-12-31", 0.315], ["2016-01-01", 0.333], ["2016-01-01", 0.32], ["2016-01-01", 0.36], ["2016-01-01", 0.332], ["2016-01-01", 0.333], ["2016-01-01", 0.327], ["2016-01-02", 0.316], ["2016-01-03", 0.31], ["2016-01-03", 0.299], ["2016-01-05", 0.362], ["2016-01-05", 0.353], ["2016-01-07", 0.361], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/51/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Note: This question is part of the Metaculus tutorial series on the art and science of making successful quantitative predictions. Additional useful information can be found at the Metaculus FAQ.
California is well-know to be very geologically active, and has in the past experienced major earthquakes: 15 recorded since... | true | 2016-02-01 | [Tutorial:] Will a magnitude 6.0+ Earthquake hit California this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-03-17 | 2016-01-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-05", 0.47], ["2016-01-07", 0.592], ["2016-01-09", 0.622], ["2016-01-12", 0.627], ["2016-01-15", 0.679], ["2016-01-19", 0.671], ["2016-01-21", 0.644], ["2016-01-26", 0.639], ["2016-01-28", 0.662], ["2016-01-31", 0.657], ["2016-02-02", 0.653], ["2016-02-04", 0.648], ["2016-02-06", 0.645], ["2016-02-09", 0.641]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/56/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Modern particle accelerators that operate in the high MeV range and above traditionally use radio-frequency (RF) waves to accelerate charged particles. They are typically very expensive and very large; Stanford's linear accelerator stretches 2 miles.
However, in 2013 a proof-of-concept for small scale accelerators was ... | true | 2018-01-03 | by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-06-28 | 2016-01-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-01", 0.05], ["2016-02-03", 0.06], ["2016-02-04", 0.082], ["2016-02-07", 0.074], ["2016-02-10", 0.072], ["2016-02-11", 0.101], ["2016-02-15", 0.099], ["2016-02-16", 0.089], ["2016-02-19", 0.093], ["2016-02-20", 0.085], ["2016-02-23", 0.083], ["2016-02-24", 0.081], ["2016-02-28", 0.096], ["2016-02-29", 0.087],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/65/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The idea that nuclear reactions at relatively low temperatures using relatively stable elements has a checkered past. Basic physics makes such phenomena difficult: the electromagnetic repulsion between two nuclei generally prevents fusion unless there is very high energy given to at least one of them, which suggests a ... | true | 2016-12-01 | Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-06-28 | 2016-01-11 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-14", 0.7], ["2016-01-14", 0.635], ["2016-01-15", 0.753], ["2016-01-16", 0.73], ["2016-01-18", 0.694], ["2016-01-19", 0.651], ["2016-01-20", 0.623], ["2016-01-21", 0.614], ["2016-01-22", 0.591], ["2016-01-22", 0.584], ["2016-01-23", 0.573], ["2016-01-26", 0.581], ["2016-01-27", 0.563], ["2016-01-27", 0.569], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/71/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In 2013, after several months of hints, Elon Musk and SpaceX released a white paper describing a new mode of transport dubbed the "hyperloop." The design calls for a pod in a low-pressure tube system; the pod rides on a cushion of air to eliminate friction with a track, and the low-pressure tube dramatically reduces ai... | true | 2016-06-15 | Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-02-01 | 2016-01-11 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-11", 0.7], ["2016-01-12", 0.71], ["2016-01-12", 0.67], ["2016-01-12", 0.665], ["2016-01-12", 0.646], ["2016-01-12", 0.665], ["2016-01-12", 0.613], ["2016-01-13", 0.574], ["2016-01-14", 0.552], ["2016-01-15", 0.601], ["2016-01-17", 0.542]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/72/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | North Korea claimed that it had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb last week on January 6th. Seismic data the same day registered 5.1 magnitude body waves, corresponding to estimates that the blast would have contained between 4.7 and 7 kilotons of energy. That energy yield is much smaller that previous tests of H-bom... | true | 2016-01-18 | Has North Korea tested a boosted fission nuclear device? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-09-14 | 2016-01-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-14", 0.1], ["2016-01-15", 0.1], ["2016-01-16", 0.087], ["2016-01-16", 0.095], ["2016-01-18", 0.088], ["2016-01-19", 0.105], ["2016-01-19", 0.116], ["2016-01-19", 0.143], ["2016-01-20", 0.131], ["2016-01-20", 0.12], ["2016-01-21", 0.111], ["2016-01-21", 0.125], ["2016-01-21", 0.138], ["2016-01-22", 0.158], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/102/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Ted Koppel, of ABC News and Nightline fame, has been sounding the alarm about the vulnerability of the electrical grids in the U.S. to intentional sabotage.
In his book Lights Out, Koppel argues that the U.S. grid(s) are both so interconnected and so fragile that a well-crafted attack could knock out power for a multi-... | true | 2016-02-15 | Will an attack on the electrical grid cause an extended power outage for a major U.S. city? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-11-18 | 2016-01-14 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-14", 0.65], ["2016-01-15", 0.82], ["2016-01-16", 0.758], ["2016-01-18", 0.732], ["2016-01-19", 0.704], ["2016-01-20", 0.71], ["2016-01-21", 0.635], ["2016-01-23", 0.657], ["2016-01-26", 0.664], ["2016-01-27", 0.635], ["2016-01-28", 0.624], ["2016-01-31", 0.624], ["2016-01-31", 0.628], ["2016-02-01", 0.621], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/106/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Turing Test (aka the "Imitation Game") is a well-known thought experiment as well as an actual test that can be done on computer programs that converse via text. The idea is simple: a human judge converses with the machine, and if it cannot discern the machine from a human conversant, then the machine has "passed."... | true | 2016-07-01 | Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-03-31 | 2016-01-18 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-18", 0.8], ["2016-01-18", 0.775], ["2016-01-19", 0.83], ["2016-01-19", 0.785], ["2016-01-19", 0.808], ["2016-01-19", 0.748], ["2016-01-19", 0.788], ["2016-01-20", 0.704], ["2016-01-20", 0.617], ["2016-01-21", 0.616], ["2016-01-21", 0.609], ["2016-01-22", 0.563], ["2016-01-22", 0.562], ["2016-01-23", 0.562], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/107/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) re-opened in September 2015 after a significant upgrade.
Designed with 10x greater sensitivity and a wider range of covered frequencies than the original LIGO, advanced LIGO should, according to its designers, have an "enhanced physics reach that d... | true | 2016-02-11 | Will the advanced LIGO team announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-07-05 | 2016-01-18 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-22", 0.63], ["2016-01-23", 0.498], ["2016-01-26", 0.496], ["2016-01-27", 0.463], ["2016-01-28", 0.485], ["2016-01-31", 0.507], ["2016-01-31", 0.514], ["2016-02-02", 0.53], ["2016-02-04", 0.513], ["2016-02-04", 0.507], ["2016-02-08", 0.507], ["2016-02-09", 0.507], ["2016-02-10", 0.5], ["2016-02-11", 0.492], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/108/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Ride sharing company Uber is being sued in June 2016 in a class-action lawsuit. The lawsuit is intended to deal with drivers' claims that they are misclassified as independent contractors, rather than employees. The current definition of Uber's workers has several important legal implications, including whether the com... | true | 2017-06-15 | Will Uber drivers win a class-action lawsuit to define them as employees? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-01-19 | ["https://wordleplay.io/"] | binary | [["2016-01-20", 0.68], ["2016-01-20", 0.618], ["2016-01-21", 0.586], ["2016-01-21", 0.581], ["2016-01-21", 0.556], ["2016-01-21", 0.559], ["2016-01-22", 0.549], ["2016-01-22", 0.538], ["2016-01-22", 0.531], ["2016-01-22", 0.534], ["2016-01-22", 0.518], ["2016-01-23", 0.523], ["2016-01-23", 0.527], ["2016-01-23", 0.52],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/109/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In a provocative new paper published in the Astronomical Journal (see typical news story), two Caltech professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- propose the existence of a new, but as-yet unseen, planet in the outer solar system. This world, tentatively dubbed "Planet Nine", is predicted to have a mass ten tim... | true | 2016-02-29 | Will "Planet Nine" be discovered in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-01-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-01", 0.1], ["2016-03-01", 0.35], ["2016-03-01", 0.3], ["2016-03-01", 0.275], ["2016-03-01", 0.318], ["2016-03-01", 0.31], ["2016-03-01", 0.292], ["2016-03-01", 0.257], ["2016-03-01", 0.244], ["2016-03-01", 0.256], ["2016-03-01", 0.255], ["2016-03-01", 0.266], ["2016-03-02", 0.276], ["2016-03-02", 0.268], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/110/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | NASA’s Kepler Mission revealed that the star KIC 8462852, a.k.a. "Tabby's Star" displays severe, aperiodic dips in brightness that have so far defied conventional astrophysical explanations.
Several explanations for this behavior have been put forward, ranging from [a family of comets] to a swarm of artificial, orbitin... | true | 2016-06-01 | Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-04-01 | 2016-01-27 | [] | binary | [["2016-01-28", 0.75], ["2016-01-28", 0.773], ["2016-01-29", 0.744], ["2016-01-30", 0.732], ["2016-01-30", 0.734], ["2016-01-31", 0.71], ["2016-01-31", 0.702], ["2016-02-01", 0.708], ["2016-02-01", 0.723], ["2016-02-02", 0.731], ["2016-02-02", 0.725], ["2016-02-02", 0.697], ["2016-02-03", 0.708], ["2016-02-03", 0.706],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/112/ | The game of Go originated in China more than 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) make it an excellent metric for the c... | Science & Tech | This question will resolve positively if AlphaGo finishes five official games against Lee Sedol and wins three or more games, or if Lee Sedol concedes defeat. If AlphaGo loses or if the match is not finished by April 1 2016, the question resolves negatively. | true | 2016-03-08 | Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-04 | 2016-02-02 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-03", 0.1], ["2016-02-03", 0.1], ["2016-02-03", 0.07], ["2016-02-04", 0.055], ["2016-02-04", 0.108], ["2016-02-04", 0.092], ["2016-02-04", 0.087], ["2016-02-04", 0.116], ["2016-02-04", 0.167], ["2016-02-05", 0.155], ["2016-02-05", 0.142], ["2016-02-06", 0.152], ["2016-02-06", 0.187], ["2016-02-06", 0.177], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/122/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Modern theories of quantum gravity are generally thought to only be testable at the Planck scale - very high energies or very small distances beyond our current technological scope. However, in the past five years proposals have been made for tabletop experiments for quantum gravity. These experiments won't need to acc... | true | 2016-06-01 | Can quantum gravity be interestingly constrained using tabletop experiments? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-01-18 | 2016-02-04 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-08", 0.35], ["2016-02-09", 0.574], ["2016-02-10", 0.561], ["2016-02-11", 0.561], ["2016-02-13", 0.552], ["2016-02-14", 0.554], ["2016-02-16", 0.624], ["2016-02-18", 0.638], ["2016-02-20", 0.676], ["2016-02-22", 0.685], ["2016-02-23", 0.689], ["2016-02-25", 0.687], ["2016-02-27", 0.69], ["2016-02-29", 0.695],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/126/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Climate change driven largely by increased atmospheric levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, is generating an upward trend to the global average surface temperature, as exhibited in this summary plot
Last year (2015) the average temperature set new record highs by a large margin, according to the NASA Goddard Insti... | true | 2016-07-31 | Will 2016 be the warmest year on record? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-09 | 2016-02-07 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-10", 0.45], ["2016-02-10", 0.43], ["2016-02-10", 0.403], ["2016-02-10", 0.305], ["2016-02-10", 0.304], ["2016-02-10", 0.314], ["2016-02-10", 0.337], ["2016-02-10", 0.317], ["2016-02-10", 0.339], ["2016-02-10", 0.349], ["2016-02-10", 0.358], ["2016-02-10", 0.344], ["2016-02-10", 0.351], ["2016-02-11", 0.357],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/127/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | The so-called "abc conjecture" (or the Oesterlé–Masse conjecture) states that, given relatively prime numbers (a,b,c) such that a+b=c, and the product d of the unique prime factors of a,b, and c, then for a specified value of an index , there are only a finite number of triples (a,b,c) such that
(That is, almost all th... | true | 2016-07-01 | Will Mochizuki's proof of the "abc conjecture" be formally accepted by the mathematics community by the end of 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-02-14 | 2016-02-09 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-10", 0.54], ["2016-02-10", 0.52], ["2016-02-10", 0.547], ["2016-02-10", 0.635], ["2016-02-10", 0.588], ["2016-02-10", 0.598], ["2016-02-10", 0.599], ["2016-02-10", 0.592], ["2016-02-10", 0.583], ["2016-02-10", 0.59], ["2016-02-10", 0.585], ["2016-02-10", 0.582], ["2016-02-11", 0.578], ["2016-02-11", 0.581], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/129/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Brain Preservation Foundation has created a two-part prize for a team that can demonstrate high fidelity preservation of neural tissue.
The first part of this prize, the Small Mammal Brain Preservation Prize (for a rabbit brain) was won today.
The winning team (21st Century Medicine) had to demonstrate complete ult... | true | 2016-04-15 | Will the Brain Preservation Foundation's Large Mammal preservation prize be won by Feb 9th, 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-04-16 | 2016-02-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-12", 0.5], ["2016-02-12", 0.46], ["2016-02-12", 0.47], ["2016-02-13", 0.397], ["2016-02-13", 0.312], ["2016-02-13", 0.488], ["2016-02-13", 0.486], ["2016-02-13", 0.455], ["2016-02-13", 0.476], ["2016-02-13", 0.488], ["2016-02-14", 0.482], ["2016-02-14", 0.482], ["2016-02-14", 0.506], ["2016-02-14", 0.5], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/130/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The Qualcomm Tricorder XPRIZE is a prize for a company that can create a device specified as follows:
As envisioned for this competition, the device will be a tool capable of capturing key health metrics and diagnosing a set of 12 diseases. Metrics for health could include such elements as blood pressure, respiratory r... | true | 2016-06-30 | The Qualcomm Tricorder XPRIZE to be awarded to a team in 2017? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-09-27 | 2016-02-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-12", 0.22], ["2016-04-12", 0.418], ["2016-04-12", 0.478], ["2016-04-12", 0.479], ["2016-04-12", 0.476], ["2016-04-12", 0.453], ["2016-04-12", 0.444], ["2016-04-12", 0.453], ["2016-04-13", 0.438], ["2016-04-13", 0.442], ["2016-04-14", 0.419], ["2016-04-14", 0.426], ["2016-04-14", 0.424], ["2016-04-14", 0.407]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/131/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Medical testing and devices company Theranos has recently come into controversy after a Wall Street Journal article asserted that it has over-promised and under-delivered on its testing suite.
As summarized by The Washington Post,
Theranos, once valued at $9 billion based on its immense promise to make blood testing ch... | true | 2016-09-01 | Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-02-11 | 2016-02-11 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-11", 0.7], ["2016-02-11", 0.615], ["2016-02-11", 0.607]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/138/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | So far, this year hasn't worked out particularly well for the stock market. The S&P 500 index is down 10% since the start of 2016, the price of oil has tanked, and the VIX volatility index has jumped by more than 50%, with recent closes consistently above 25.
In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often refer... | true | 2016-02-11 | Wil the VIX index top 30 before March 15th, 2016? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-12-30 | 2016-02-12 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-18", 0.22], ["2016-08-18", 0.2], ["2016-08-18", 0.267], ["2016-08-18", 0.255], ["2016-08-19", 0.244], ["2016-08-19", 0.302], ["2016-08-19", 0.328], ["2016-08-19", 0.292], ["2016-08-19", 0.311], ["2016-08-19", 0.311], ["2016-08-19", 0.325], ["2016-08-19", 0.331], ["2016-08-19", 0.325], ["2016-08-19", 0.33], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/139/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) regulates all over-the-counter and prescription drugs released for sale to the public. CDER approves hundreds of new medications each year, most of which are variations of existing products (such as new dosages or generics). A small ... | true | 2016-11-01 | Will there be more novel new drugs approved by the FDA in 2016 than in 2015? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2016-02-12 | [] | binary | [["2016-08-17", 0.63], ["2016-08-17", 0.81], ["2016-08-17", 0.67], ["2016-08-17", 0.628], ["2016-08-18", 0.598], ["2016-08-18", 0.598], ["2016-08-18", 0.609], ["2016-08-18", 0.639], ["2016-08-18", 0.624], ["2016-08-19", 0.599], ["2016-08-19", 0.589], ["2016-08-19", 0.579], ["2016-08-19", 0.565], ["2016-08-20", 0.563], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/140/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Along with ride-sharing services Lyft and Uber, AirBnB is a vanguard company in the "sharing economy" in which people make money sharing their property with complete strangers. It's a fairly new business model that hasn't yet achieved profitability or cleared all of its regulatory hurdles.
The concept is simple - peopl... | true | 2017-03-15 | Will AirBnB will go public before 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-06-03 | 2016-02-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-14", 0.35], ["2016-02-14", 0.45], ["2016-02-14", 0.435], ["2016-02-14", 0.483], ["2016-02-14", 0.49], ["2016-02-14", 0.492], ["2016-02-14", 0.572], ["2016-02-14", 0.553], ["2016-02-15", 0.517], ["2016-02-15", 0.479], ["2016-02-15", 0.481], ["2016-02-15", 0.498], ["2016-02-15", 0.498], ["2016-02-15", 0.485], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/142/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Facebook announced in March 2014 its plans to harness satellite, drone and other technology as part of an ambitious and costly effort to beam Internet connectivity to people in underdeveloped parts of the world.
By mid-2015, Facebook unveiled a solar-powered drone, code-named Aquila, which is able to fly in the air for... | true | 2016-05-01 | Will Facebook flight-test the Aquila drone in the U.S early this year? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-20 | 2016-02-15 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-15", 0.5], ["2016-02-16", 0.301], ["2016-02-19", 0.295], ["2016-02-21", 0.278], ["2016-02-24", 0.272], ["2016-02-28", 0.274], ["2016-03-01", 0.27], ["2016-03-05", 0.262], ["2016-03-08", 0.261], ["2016-03-11", 0.274], ["2016-03-12", 0.268], ["2016-03-15", 0.28], ["2016-03-18", 0.272], ["2016-03-22", 0.271], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/143/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Scientists are beginning to target aging itself as a pathology, viewing it as a root cause to many age-related problems like diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and Alzheimer's. The World Health Organization (WHO) is being pushed by many drug developers to classify aging as a disease, which would allow pharmaceuticals to... | true | 2017-02-15 | Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-30 | 2016-02-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-18", 0.65], ["2016-02-18", 0.32], ["2016-02-18", 0.34], ["2016-02-18", 0.328], ["2016-02-18", 0.36], ["2016-02-18", 0.377], ["2016-02-19", 0.389], ["2016-02-19", 0.398], ["2016-02-19", 0.424], ["2016-02-19", 0.423], ["2016-02-19", 0.423], ["2016-02-19", 0.414], ["2016-02-19", 0.416], ["2016-02-19", 0.415], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/147/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | On 11 Feb 2016 the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) collaboration announced for the first time the observation of gravitational waves from a black hole merger, ushering the era of gravitational wave astronomy. Furthermore, the detected event (GW150914) had a number of unusual features:
The bla... | true | 2016-05-31 | In 2016, will gravitational wave astronomy discover something completely new? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-03-29 | 2016-02-18 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-18", 0.5], ["2016-02-18", 0.325], ["2016-02-18", 0.367], ["2016-02-18", 0.375], ["2016-02-18", 0.302], ["2016-02-18", 0.322], ["2016-02-18", 0.32], ["2016-02-18", 0.303], ["2016-02-18", 0.284], ["2016-02-18", 0.27], ["2016-02-18", 0.289], ["2016-02-18", 0.262], ["2016-02-19", 0.256], ["2016-02-19", 0.251], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/150/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The past several years have seen escalating tension between tech giants such as Apple and Google, and government agencies including the CIA and FBI, over the encryption of data on devices and over the internet.
In recent weeks this has escalated into a confrontation between the FBI and Apple computer concerning encrypt... | true | 2016-02-28 | Will Apple help the FBI access the 'San Bernardino iPhone'? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-06-02 | 2016-02-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-24", 0.5], ["2016-02-24", 0.411], ["2016-02-25", 0.417], ["2016-02-26", 0.429], ["2016-02-27", 0.433], ["2016-02-28", 0.471], ["2016-02-29", 0.472], ["2016-03-02", 0.473], ["2016-03-03", 0.461], ["2016-03-05", 0.452], ["2016-03-07", 0.454], ["2016-03-08", 0.454], ["2016-03-09", 0.464], ["2016-03-09", 0.448],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/156/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The U.S. nuclear weapons policy under the Obama administration includes large-scale modernization of the nuclear triad, with projections nearing $1 Trillion in spending over the next 30 years. ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) in particular are slated for renovation; the LGM-30 Minuteman III has been in servi... | true | 2017-06-01 | Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-06-02 | 2016-02-23 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-24", 0.91], ["2016-02-24", 0.725], ["2016-02-24", 0.72], ["2016-02-24", 0.725], ["2016-02-24", 0.663], ["2016-02-24", 0.523], ["2016-02-24", 0.498], ["2016-02-24", 0.498], ["2016-02-24", 0.503], ["2016-02-24", 0.503], ["2016-02-24", 0.484], ["2016-02-24", 0.479], ["2016-02-24", 0.481], ["2016-02-25", 0.528],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/157/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Mid 2015, a paper by Gary Prezéau of NASA Jet Propulsion Lab was submitted to ApJ exploring the theoretical dynamics of fine-grained dark matter filaments, streams of dark matter particles, that may be emanating out of the Earth and other bodies in our solar system.
So called dark matter "hairs," these would constitute... | true | 2016-05-01 | Will the (theoretical) existence of "dark matter hair" change the way we look for dark matter? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-03-03 | 2016-02-27 | [] | binary | [["2016-02-27", 0.4], ["2016-02-27", 0.5], ["2016-02-27", 0.5], ["2016-02-27", 0.448], ["2016-02-27", 0.398], ["2016-02-27", 0.418], ["2016-02-27", 0.437], ["2016-02-27", 0.44], ["2016-02-27", 0.448], ["2016-02-27", 0.434], ["2016-02-27", 0.421], ["2016-02-27", 0.425], ["2016-02-27", 0.431], ["2016-02-27", 0.427], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/159/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Nate Silver has achieved significant notoriety for developing a system to carefully aggregate election polls to create well-calibrated statistical forecasts of outcome elections; his site publishes daily updates to predictions for primary and general elections in House, Senate and Presidential races.
Prediction markets... | true | 2016-03-01 | Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-04-15 | 2016-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-03", 0.63], ["2016-03-03", 0.43], ["2016-03-03", 0.285], ["2016-03-03", 0.65], ["2016-03-03", 0.64], ["2016-03-03", 0.617], ["2016-03-04", 0.602], ["2016-03-04", 0.602], ["2016-03-04", 0.617], ["2016-03-04", 0.602], ["2016-03-04", 0.592], ["2016-03-04", 0.598], ["2016-03-05", 0.6], ["2016-03-05", 0.588], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/164/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The NSA revelations in 2013 demonstrated how vulnerable and frequently breached the world's internet data is. Following Edward Snowden's advocacy, and the advocacy of the CA Security Council, Wikipedia CEO Jimmy Wales and other internet leaders have pushed for the move to end-to-end encryption, or the practice of encry... | true | 2016-06-01 | Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-04-08 | 2016-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-03", 0.3], ["2016-03-03", 0.5], ["2016-03-03", 0.45], ["2016-03-03", 0.45], ["2016-03-03", 0.4], ["2016-03-03", 0.41], ["2016-03-03", 0.417], ["2016-03-04", 0.403], ["2016-03-04", 0.396], ["2016-03-04", 0.402], ["2016-03-04", 0.412], ["2016-03-04", 0.425], ["2016-03-04", 0.431], ["2016-03-04", 0.436], ["2016... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/165/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets are designed to be re-used after landing vertically on a floating barge-based landing site. SpaceX has successfully landed a rocket on land, but so far has not succeeded with a barge.
Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 on a barge be a success?
Resolution is positive if the Falcon 9 ... | true | 2016-03-05 | Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be successful? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-04-01 | 2016-03-03 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-04", 0.5], ["2016-03-04", 0.637], ["2016-03-04", 0.69], ["2016-03-04", 0.712], ["2016-03-04", 0.702], ["2016-03-04", 0.697], ["2016-03-04", 0.698], ["2016-03-04", 0.703], ["2016-03-05", 0.71], ["2016-03-05", 0.7], ["2016-03-05", 0.7], ["2016-03-05", 0.688], ["2016-03-05", 0.698], ["2016-03-07", 0.698], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/166/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | There is intense interest in Tesla's Model 3 (originally the "Model E", perhaps for Energy or to go between "S" and "X"). Their fourth production vehicle, it is slated to cost of order $35,000 USD and move Tesla out of the somewhat niche market required by the model S and X's price tags.
Tesla has now scheduled a March... | true | 2016-03-31 | Will a full prototype car be unveiled at the Tesla Model 3 event on March 31? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-05-31 | 2016-03-08 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-08", 0.4], ["2016-03-09", 0.365], ["2016-03-10", 0.363], ["2016-03-11", 0.365], ["2016-03-12", 0.376], ["2016-03-13", 0.406], ["2016-03-16", 0.405], ["2016-03-18", 0.402], ["2016-03-18", 0.402], ["2016-03-20", 0.41], ["2016-03-22", 0.413], ["2016-03-22", 0.403], ["2016-03-30", 0.426], ["2016-04-06", 0.428], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/168/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The attention of policymakers and business leaders is being drawn towards space weather, the body of environmental dynamics of the solar wind, magnetosphere and thermosphere, and the risks it poses to global infrastructure. The NOAA tracks space weather, and has a set of space weather scales for solar radiation storms ... | true | 2016-12-01 | Will the US develop a new satellite for early-warning of severe geomagnetic storms? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-05 | 2016-03-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-06-23", 0.1], ["2016-06-24", 0.322], ["2016-06-24", 0.32], ["2016-06-24", 0.298], ["2016-06-24", 0.291], ["2016-06-25", 0.298], ["2016-06-28", 0.298], ["2016-06-28", 0.325], ["2016-06-28", 0.341], ["2016-06-30", 0.341], ["2016-06-30", 0.349], ["2016-06-30", 0.362], ["2016-07-01", 0.397], ["2016-07-09", 0.401], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/169/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Brown dwarfs occupy an astronomical netherworld. Too small to stably burn hydrogen as full-fledged stars and too massive to qualify as planets, they drift in vast numbers through interstellar space, slowly cooling as they radiate remnant heat from their formation.
After years of dedicated searching, the first brown dwa... | true | 2017-06-30 | Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-03-17 | 2016-03-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-10", 0.4], ["2016-03-10", 0.242], ["2016-03-10", 0.234], ["2016-03-10", 0.303], ["2016-03-10", 0.303], ["2016-03-10", 0.238], ["2016-03-10", 0.25], ["2016-03-10", 0.247], ["2016-03-10", 0.247], ["2016-03-10", 0.247], ["2016-03-10", 0.246], ["2016-03-10", 0.247], ["2016-03-10", 0.281], ["2016-03-10", 0.296], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/170/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Attention worldwide has been riveted to the unfolding match between Go master Lee Sedol and DeepMind's new Go-playing AI system AlphaGo, with millions of viewers watching, and a million dollars (along with some portion of the human mind's dignity) at stake.
Prior to the match, Metaculus had pegged a 64% probability of ... | true | 2016-03-13 | Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-11-03 | 2016-03-11 | [] | binary | [["2016-09-23", 0.34], ["2016-10-04", 0.31], ["2016-10-18", 0.31], ["2016-10-24", 0.271], ["2016-11-05", 0.252], ["2016-11-17", 0.257], ["2016-11-28", 0.268], ["2016-12-06", 0.264], ["2016-12-15", 0.26], ["2016-12-21", 0.26], ["2017-01-01", 0.262], ["2017-01-08", 0.261], ["2017-04-11", 0.261], ["2017-04-13", 0.26], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/172/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Although critical to the democratic model of government, voting in America has some problems. Turnout is often low, and the terms "butterfly ballot" and "hanging chad" still linger in our collective consciousness following the uncertainty of the 2000 presidential election.
Since we are already able to do practically ev... | true | 2020-01-01 | Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-04-13 | 2016-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-13", 0.6], ["2016-03-13", 0.71], ["2016-03-13", 0.723], ["2016-03-13", 0.73], ["2016-03-13", 0.764], ["2016-03-13", 0.737], ["2016-03-13", 0.667], ["2016-03-13", 0.67], ["2016-03-13", 0.663], ["2016-03-13", 0.652], ["2016-03-13", 0.658], ["2016-03-13", 0.651], ["2016-03-14", 0.646], ["2016-03-14", 0.634], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/177/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | On February 1st of 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially recognized a public health emergency taking place in Central and South America: a sudden increase in cases of a mosquito-borne and sexually tansmitted disease known as Zika virus. This particular outbreak indicated a direct correlation with the inc... | true | 2016-04-13 | By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-05-12 | 2016-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-13", 0.5], ["2016-03-13", 0.4], ["2016-03-13", 0.5], ["2016-03-13", 0.533], ["2016-03-13", 0.525], ["2016-03-13", 0.472], ["2016-03-14", 0.44], ["2016-03-14", 0.441], ["2016-03-14", 0.471], ["2016-03-14", 0.486], ["2016-03-14", 0.487], ["2016-03-14", 0.541], ["2016-03-14", 0.55], ["2016-03-14", 0.55], ["2016... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/178/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In a recent paper, Backović has studied the phenomenon of "ambulance chasing" in particle physics, i.e. the flood of papers in the months following a tentative experimental signal, only to slow as interest is lost, fresh ideas are exhausted or the experimental signatures disproven.
Backović shows that a simple two para... | true | 2016-04-15 | Ambulance chasing the LHC diphoton resonance | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2016-03-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-14", 0.5], ["2016-03-18", 0.22], ["2016-03-22", 0.202], ["2016-03-26", 0.198], ["2016-03-30", 0.191], ["2016-04-03", 0.234], ["2016-04-11", 0.24], ["2016-04-12", 0.232], ["2016-04-15", 0.214], ["2016-04-17", 0.217], ["2016-04-20", 0.199], ["2016-04-29", 0.199], ["2016-04-30", 0.199], ["2016-05-19", 0.194], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/179/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Miss... | true | 2017-12-01 | Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-02 | 2016-03-15 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-15", 0.4], ["2016-03-19", 0.436], ["2016-03-22", 0.446], ["2016-04-09", 0.445], ["2016-04-12", 0.442], ["2016-04-14", 0.451], ["2016-04-18", 0.44], ["2016-04-20", 0.436], ["2016-04-26", 0.436], ["2016-04-29", 0.435], ["2016-05-05", 0.445], ["2016-05-06", 0.473], ["2016-05-10", 0.475], ["2016-05-12", 0.474], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/181/ | This is a sister question to the [other Metaculus Self-Driving Car question], which asked if a commercially available car would be released by 2018. This one will ask if an autonomous vehicle fleet will be in operation for ride sharing, taxi, or shuttling services.
Self-driving car (SDC) fleets are seen as perfect for ... | Science & Tech | By January 1st, 2019, will a fleet of autonomous vehicles be used in a ridesharing or hailing-like service?
To resolve positively, there must exist a service in some geographical region available to members of the general public, taking users between two destinations within the region as chosen by the user. There must ... | true | 2017-02-15 | Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-30 | 2016-03-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-17", 0.4], ["2016-03-17", 0.55], ["2016-03-17", 0.543], ["2016-03-17", 0.418], ["2016-03-17", 0.4], ["2016-03-17", 0.39], ["2016-03-17", 0.359], ["2016-03-17", 0.354], ["2016-03-17", 0.411], ["2016-03-17", 0.393], ["2016-03-17", 0.397], ["2016-03-17", 0.395], ["2016-03-18", 0.396], ["2016-03-18", 0.415], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/183/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | MIT researchers Kadambi et al have developed a 3D imaging system called Polarized 3D that integrates the polarization of light in its rendering of depth maps. Incorporating polarization into enhancing a map of a 3D surface hasn't been engineered before, and the advantage it offers is additional information about the ge... | true | 2017-02-15 | Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-21 | 2016-03-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-17", 0.3], ["2016-03-27", 0.421], ["2016-04-11", 0.427], ["2016-04-20", 0.418], ["2016-04-26", 0.425], ["2016-05-17", 0.428], ["2016-05-19", 0.433], ["2016-06-01", 0.438], ["2016-06-07", 0.431], ["2016-06-20", 0.437], ["2016-06-24", 0.444], ["2016-06-30", 0.431], ["2016-07-11", 0.437], ["2016-07-23", 0.444],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/184/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | In April of 2015, it was announced that scientists in China had successfully edited the genome of a human embryo using the CRISPR/Cas9 system--a standard synthetic biology tool for gene editing. February 1st of this 2016 marked another major turning point in the field when UK regulators approved gene editing in viable ... | true | 2018-10-01 | By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term? | metaculus | 1 |
2016-05-25 | 2016-03-17 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-17", 0.5], ["2016-03-17", 0.68], ["2016-03-17", 0.715], ["2016-03-17", 0.505], ["2016-03-17", 0.537], ["2016-03-17", 0.57], ["2016-03-17", 0.555], ["2016-03-17", 0.595], ["2016-03-17", 0.582], ["2016-03-17", 0.502], ["2016-03-17", 0.422], ["2016-03-17", 0.385], ["2016-03-17", 0.396], ["2016-03-17", 0.509], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/186/ | Dramatic recent progress in narrow (and arguably general) purpose AI has led to a myriad of practical but nascent technologies including autonomous vehicles, automated call-answering systems, highly automated factories, medical and legal expert systems, and so on.
While the automation of repetitive physical labor is an... | Politics & Governance | Will the total time devoted to questions (and answers) directly referring to AI and/or robotic automation of labor in the remaining Republican and Democratic presidential primary debates be less than 5 minutes?
(Note: we will launch a similar question about the post-primary presidential debates) | true | 2016-04-15 | Will robotic/AI automation be essentially ignored in the primary races? | metaculus | 1 |
2017-01-01 | 2016-03-18 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-18", 0.1], ["2016-03-18", 0.489], ["2016-03-18", 0.461], ["2016-03-18", 0.487], ["2016-03-19", 0.497], ["2016-03-20", 0.495], ["2016-03-20", 0.495], ["2016-03-21", 0.495], ["2016-03-21", 0.48], ["2016-03-22", 0.481], ["2016-03-22", 0.469], ["2016-03-22", 0.482], ["2016-03-26", 0.478], ["2016-03-27", 0.479], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/188/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In mid-January, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a worldwide stir by proposing the existence of a new, but as-yet unseen, planet in the outer solar system. This world, now known as "Planet Nine", is predicted to have a mass roughly ten times that of Earth, an orbital period of abou... | true | 2016-07-31 | Will Planet Nine be found in 2016? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-09-01 | 2016-03-20 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-20", 0.5], ["2016-03-20", 0.4], ["2016-03-20", 0.553], ["2016-03-20", 0.54], ["2016-03-20", 0.542], ["2016-03-20", 0.51], ["2016-03-20", 0.538], ["2016-03-20", 0.53], ["2016-03-20", 0.526], ["2016-03-20", 0.504], ["2016-03-20", 0.504], ["2016-03-20", 0.532], ["2016-03-21", 0.507], ["2016-03-21", 0.508], ["20... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/190/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Oxitec, a UK-based synthetic biology company specializing in infectious vector control, has been a focus of major news outlets since the recent spike in human Zika virus cases in South America. The mosquito species Aedes aegypti has been identified as the primary carrier of Zika and several other pathogens including de... | true | 2016-06-01 | Will the FDA approve GMO mosquitos for widespread release? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-20 | 2016-03-21 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-21", 0.45], ["2016-03-21", 0.47], ["2016-03-21", 0.455], ["2016-03-21", 0.43], ["2016-03-21", 0.51], ["2016-03-21", 0.582], ["2016-03-21", 0.612], ["2016-03-21", 0.598], ["2016-03-21", 0.599], ["2016-03-21", 0.604], ["2016-03-21", 0.603], ["2016-03-21", 0.599], ["2016-03-21", 0.606], ["2016-03-21", 0.601], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/191/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The NASA Discovery Program space missions are designed to be low cost but effective missions in the space and planetary exploration of our solar system. InSight, and the InSight Mars lander, is the 12th standalone Discovery Program mission managed at NASA JPL. It's purpose: investigate the seismic activity of Mars by d... | true | 2016-07-01 | Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-02-22 | 2016-03-22 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-08", 0.6], ["2016-11-08", 0.393], ["2016-11-08", 0.46], ["2016-11-08", 0.46], ["2016-11-08", 0.386], ["2016-11-09", 0.386], ["2016-11-09", 0.399], ["2016-11-09", 0.43], ["2016-11-09", 0.437], ["2016-11-09", 0.437], ["2016-11-09", 0.492], ["2016-11-09", 0.492], ["2016-11-09", 0.512], ["2016-11-09", 0.508], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/192/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | London, England ranks as one of the most expensive cities in the world. Property prices grew by nearly 10% in 2015, stoking fears of a housing price bubble. In May 2013, the median home price in London topped 600,000 GBP, around double the median price in 2009, during the Great Recession. Afraid of a bubble bursting, p... | true | 2017-03-01 | Will the London housing market deflate in 2017? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-05-01 | 2016-03-23 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-23", 0.3], ["2016-03-23", 0.405], ["2016-03-23", 0.475], ["2016-03-24", 0.483], ["2016-03-24", 0.488], ["2016-03-24", 0.396], ["2016-03-24", 0.39], ["2016-03-24", 0.391], ["2016-03-24", 0.368], ["2016-03-24", 0.349], ["2016-03-24", 0.339], ["2016-03-24", 0.343], ["2016-03-24", 0.346], ["2016-03-24", 0.343], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/193/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | In the US, medical research on potentially human-harmful viral and bacterial pathogen and other "select agents" generally takes place in Biosafety level 3 and level 4 labs.
The US select agents program regulates the identification, acquisition, use, transfer, and disposal of select agents. Part of this program is a det... | true | 2016-11-15 | Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-04-08 | 2016-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-28", 0.48], ["2016-03-28", 0.475], ["2016-03-28", 0.547], ["2016-03-28", 0.597], ["2016-03-28", 0.54], ["2016-03-28", 0.54], ["2016-03-28", 0.549], ["2016-03-28", 0.542], ["2016-03-28", 0.538], ["2016-03-28", 0.556], ["2016-03-28", 0.545], ["2016-03-29", 0.536], ["2016-03-29", 0.533], ["2016-03-29", 0.546], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/194/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets are designed to be re-used after landing vertically on a floating barge-based landing site. SpaceX has successfully (and might we add awesomely) landed a rocket on land, but so far has not succeeded with a barge.
Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 on a barge be a success?
Resolution... | true | 2016-04-08 | Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be successful? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-07-31 | 2016-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-26", 0.41], ["2016-04-02", 0.519], ["2016-04-06", 0.511], ["2016-04-11", 0.504], ["2016-04-15", 0.498], ["2016-04-19", 0.513], ["2016-04-26", 0.514], ["2016-06-07", 0.504], ["2016-06-20", 0.515], ["2016-06-20", 0.518], ["2016-06-27", 0.53], ["2016-06-30", 0.534], ["2016-07-05", 0.526], ["2016-07-11", 0.515],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/195/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The 2014 Ebola outbreak was the largest in history, and revealed a disturbing lack of local and international preparedness in dealing with potential pandemics. As of March 20, 2016, according to CDC numbers, the outbreak caused 28608 cases and 11305 fatalities. The outbreak is now largely contained thanks to a belated ... | true | 2018-07-23 | Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-12 | 2016-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-26", 0.79], ["2016-04-09", 0.42], ["2016-04-19", 0.462], ["2016-04-30", 0.457], ["2016-06-05", 0.467], ["2016-06-20", 0.462], ["2016-06-30", 0.471], ["2016-07-16", 0.48], ["2016-07-31", 0.473], ["2016-08-10", 0.474], ["2016-08-23", 0.478], ["2016-09-05", 0.483], ["2016-09-18", 0.499], ["2016-09-29", 0.506], ... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/196/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The scientific community has--for over a decade--recognized that the voltage-gated sodium channel Nav1.7 protein, which is found in neurons among nearly every type of human tissue, is primarily responsible for pain sensing in mammals. Small-molecule inhibitors of this channel, however, fail to completely shut off the p... | true | 2020-01-01 | A medical pathway to complete painlessness? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-06-09 | 2016-03-28 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-28", 0.6], ["2016-03-28", 0.6], ["2016-03-28", 0.597], ["2016-03-28", 0.572], ["2016-03-28", 0.558], ["2016-03-28", 0.596], ["2016-03-28", 0.58], ["2016-03-28", 0.583], ["2016-03-29", 0.597], ["2016-03-29", 0.628], ["2016-03-29", 0.623], ["2016-03-29", 0.63], ["2016-03-29", 0.627], ["2016-03-29", 0.636], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/198/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Bigelow Aerospace has formed a partnership with SpaceX in which SpaceX launches habitats developed by Bigelow. Bigelow is currently developing a long-term inflatable space habitat called the B330.
The "Bigelow Expandable Activity Module" (BEAM) is an "experimental program developed under a NASA contract in an effort to... | true | 2016-04-08 | Will Bigelow Aerospace's inflatable habitation module inflate, attach to the ISS, and be inhabitable? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-01-03 | 2016-03-30 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-30", 0.5], ["2016-03-31", 0.401], ["2016-04-01", 0.415], ["2016-04-02", 0.391], ["2016-04-02", 0.386], ["2016-04-03", 0.388], ["2016-04-04", 0.388], ["2016-04-07", 0.385], ["2016-04-07", 0.418], ["2016-04-09", 0.419], ["2016-04-09", 0.415], ["2016-04-11", 0.409], ["2016-04-12", 0.406], ["2016-04-14", 0.403],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/199/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Making up 85% of the matter in the observable universe, dark matter is, per its name, invisible to us. Its presence is manifested gravitationally, however, as it is required to explain the dynamics of galaxies, clusters, and cosmic large-scale structures, affects the microwave background anisotropies, and can even be m... | true | 2017-02-15 | Will the Xenon1T experiment discover WIMP dark matter? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-02-22 | 2016-03-30 | [] | binary | [["2016-03-30", 0.5], ["2016-03-31", 0.546], ["2016-03-31", 0.546], ["2016-04-01", 0.536], ["2016-04-01", 0.485], ["2016-04-02", 0.482], ["2016-04-02", 0.488], ["2016-04-03", 0.493], ["2016-04-04", 0.506], ["2016-04-04", 0.504], ["2016-04-06", 0.503], ["2016-04-11", 0.511], ["2016-04-12", 0.507], ["2016-04-14", 0.508],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/200/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | One way to measure how quickly the U.S. is striving towards clean energy is the percentage of added electricity generation capacity each year in the form of renewables. The sum total of electricity generation from solar and wind sat at 5.7% in July 2015, but the fraction of added capacity from renewables in 2015 was 69... | true | 2016-09-01 | Will more than 80% of the new US electricity Generation Capacity in 2016 come from solar and wind? | metaculus | 0 |
2017-11-16 | 2016-04-05 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-06", 0.5], ["2016-04-06", 0.791], ["2016-04-06", 0.757], ["2016-04-07", 0.749], ["2016-04-07", 0.709], ["2016-04-07", 0.705], ["2016-04-07", 0.691], ["2016-04-08", 0.686], ["2016-04-09", 0.686], ["2016-04-09", 0.687], ["2016-04-12", 0.688], ["2016-04-12", 0.706], ["2016-04-14", 0.703], ["2016-04-14", 0.703],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/204/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | As ever-more sophisticated expert systems, machine learning systems, and other "narrow AI" systems are developed and commercialized, the line between the "natural" and "artificial" is becoming blurred in more and more everyday interactions.
Automated call-processing systems leave (temporary) ambiguity as to whether one... | true | 2016-12-01 | A is in the I of the beholder #1: Wait, is this video for real? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-12-30 | 2016-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-06", 0.5], ["2016-04-06", 0.6], ["2016-04-06", 0.7], ["2016-04-06", 0.797], ["2016-04-06", 0.817], ["2016-04-06", 0.88], ["2016-04-06", 0.854], ["2016-04-06", 0.787], ["2016-04-06", 0.783], ["2016-04-06", 0.677], ["2016-04-06", 0.673], ["2016-04-06", 0.694], ["2016-04-06", 0.67], ["2016-04-06", 0.67], ["2016... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/205/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In August 2015 German Newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung received from an anonymous source 11.5 million documents (totaling 2.6 terabytes of data) from the Panamanian corporate service provider Mossack Fonseca. (Mossack Fonseca claims the data was taken in a hacking incident)
They subsequently shared the data with the U.S.-... | true | 2016-06-20 | Will Wikileaks publish the full "Panama Papers" in a publicly-accessible and searchable format? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-19 | 2016-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-07", 0.01], ["2016-04-07", 0.768], ["2016-04-07", 0.6], ["2016-04-08", 0.535], ["2016-04-08", 0.536], ["2016-04-08", 0.534], ["2016-04-08", 0.523], ["2016-04-09", 0.527], ["2016-04-09", 0.52], ["2016-04-09", 0.527], ["2016-04-11", 0.52], ["2016-04-12", 0.521], ["2016-04-12", 0.52], ["2016-04-15", 0.5], ["201... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/206/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | This is second in a series of the blurring lines between AI and "natural" systems.
The AI and machine learning space is currently booming, with dramatically increasing investment by both large companies such as Google/Deepmind, IBM, Facebook, etc., as well as a major rise in AI startups.
Among its many projects, Facebo... | true | 2016-10-01 | A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic | metaculus | 0 |
2017-06-03 | 2016-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-09", 0.5], ["2016-04-09", 0.99], ["2016-04-09", 0.54], ["2016-04-09", 0.527], ["2016-04-09", 0.568], ["2016-04-09", 0.562], ["2016-04-09", 0.598], ["2016-04-09", 0.584], ["2016-04-09", 0.592], ["2016-04-09", 0.588], ["2016-04-09", 0.583], ["2016-04-09", 0.57], ["2016-04-09", 0.553], ["2016-04-09", 0.544], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/207/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Along with rather "left brain" endeavors such as trading stocks and playing Go, machine learning systems have also been developed for more aesthetic pursuits.
In recent news, a computer system (using lots of human input) has been developed to create realistic Rembrandt paintings.
In April 2016, a program (again with lo... | true | 2016-09-01 | A is in the I of the beholder #3: it's beAIutiful! | metaculus | 0 |
2022-03-17 | 2016-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-12", 0.24], ["2016-04-15", 0.583], ["2016-04-18", 0.59], ["2016-04-20", 0.572], ["2016-04-23", 0.572], ["2016-04-25", 0.569], ["2016-04-28", 0.573], ["2016-05-03", 0.582], ["2016-05-08", 0.582], ["2016-05-10", 0.582], ["2016-05-13", 0.581], ["2016-05-15", 0.582], ["2016-05-17", 0.581], ["2016-05-28", 0.578],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/208/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Chemical rockets, while great for many purposes, will never get us far outside of the solar system. With the nearest stars parsecs away, reaching them in a human lifetime requires speeds of at least 10% the speed of light. As can be seen from the rocket equation, chemical rockets with exhaust speeds of a few km/s would... | true | 2018-02-01 | To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-01-09 | 2016-04-09 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-12", 0.8], ["2016-04-12", 0.696], ["2016-04-12", 0.692], ["2016-04-13", 0.672], ["2016-04-13", 0.662], ["2016-04-13", 0.675], ["2016-04-13", 0.675], ["2016-04-13", 0.649], ["2016-04-13", 0.64], ["2016-04-13", 0.64], ["2016-04-14", 0.64], ["2016-04-14", 0.64], ["2016-04-14", 0.625], ["2016-04-14", 0.616], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/209/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The idea of using an array of lasers to focus a beam and propel a spacecraft, "beamed propulsion," recently received a major boost with the announcement that entrepreneur and Philanthropist Yuri Milner has committed $100 Million to a "research and engineering program [that] will seek proof of concept for using light be... | true | 2016-09-01 | To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-06-05 | 2016-04-09 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-12", 0.6], ["2016-04-14", 0.627], ["2016-04-15", 0.611], ["2016-04-18", 0.611], ["2016-04-19", 0.618], ["2016-04-23", 0.614], ["2016-04-26", 0.612], ["2016-04-28", 0.61], ["2016-04-28", 0.611], ["2016-05-01", 0.61], ["2016-05-06", 0.605], ["2016-06-05", 0.607], ["2016-06-06", 0.607], ["2016-06-06", 0.617], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/210/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The idea of using an array of lasers to focus a beam and propel a spacecraft, "beamed propulsion," recently received a major boost with the announcement that entrepreneur and Philanthropist Yuri Milner has committed $100 Million to a "research and engineering program [that] will seek proof of concept for using light be... | true | 2017-06-01 | To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-01 | 2016-04-10 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-10", 0.64], ["2016-04-12", 0.536], ["2016-04-14", 0.524], ["2016-04-16", 0.526], ["2016-04-18", 0.525], ["2016-04-19", 0.533], ["2016-04-26", 0.533], ["2016-05-01", 0.529], ["2016-05-16", 0.531], ["2016-06-06", 0.534], ["2016-06-07", 0.528], ["2016-06-18", 0.518], ["2016-06-21", 0.523], ["2016-06-29", 0.524]... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/211/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | 3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is MDMA - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a storied history beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a Schedule I substance in the U.S., and in general a legally co... | true | 2018-01-01 | Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-09-27 | 2016-04-12 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-12", 0.2], ["2016-04-14", 0.362], ["2016-04-15", 0.359], ["2016-04-17", 0.37], ["2016-04-19", 0.37], ["2016-04-21", 0.353], ["2016-04-23", 0.351], ["2016-04-26", 0.351], ["2016-04-27", 0.37], ["2016-04-28", 0.372], ["2016-04-30", 0.369], ["2016-05-01", 0.364], ["2016-05-05", 0.363], ["2016-05-05", 0.363], ["... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/212/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The philanthropist Yuri Milner recently announced a $100 Million commitment to start the development of gram-scale "nanocraft" that can travel at 20% of the speed of light. The prospect of building interstellar probes places a suddenly renewed emphasis on discovering the planetary companions to the closest stars. Exhib... | true | 2016-12-31 | To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B? | metaculus | 0 |
2016-07-27 | 2016-04-13 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-15", 0.37], ["2016-04-15", 0.36], ["2016-04-15", 0.332], ["2016-04-15", 0.339], ["2016-04-16", 0.322], ["2016-04-16", 0.322], ["2016-04-16", 0.305], ["2016-04-16", 0.317], ["2016-04-16", 0.317], ["2016-04-16", 0.313], ["2016-04-16", 0.305], ["2016-04-16", 0.305], ["2016-04-16", 0.305], ["2016-04-16", 0.305],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/213/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As of April 15, the delegate counts in the US Democratic Primary Race (excluding superdelegates) are 1307 for Clinton and 1097 for Sanders, per fivethirtyeight; this page also outlines the route to nomination for both candidates.
Clinton is in a solid lead, though Sanders arguably has the momentum, having won the last ... | true | 2016-06-06 | Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-01 | 2016-04-15 | [] | binary | [["2016-11-07", 0.71], ["2016-11-08", 0.716], ["2016-11-09", 0.716], ["2016-11-10", 0.643], ["2016-11-10", 0.617], ["2016-11-11", 0.584], ["2016-11-12", 0.562], ["2016-11-13", 0.575], ["2016-11-14", 0.591], ["2016-11-15", 0.58], ["2016-11-15", 0.571], ["2016-11-16", 0.575], ["2016-11-19", 0.574], ["2016-11-24", 0.574],... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/216/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In April 2016, the SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) Institute announced that its Allen Telescope Array would focus on surveying more than 20,000 red dwarf stars for signs of intelligent life over the next two years.
SETI's Allen Telescope Array (ATA), in the mountains of Northern California, is an array ... | true | 2018-04-15 | Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-21 | 2016-04-15 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-15", 0.9], ["2016-04-15", 0.455], ["2016-04-15", 0.42], ["2016-04-15", 0.562], ["2016-04-15", 0.54], ["2016-04-15", 0.517], ["2016-04-15", 0.471], ["2016-04-15", 0.47], ["2016-04-16", 0.473], ["2016-04-16", 0.466], ["2016-04-16", 0.45], ["2016-04-16", 0.438], ["2016-04-16", 0.427], ["2016-04-16", 0.437], ["2... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/217/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The US patent system is an issue of great current controversy, with the rise of companies that purchase large numbers of broadly-interpretable patents then request (at threat of lawsuit) licensing fees from companies using technologies that arguably fall under those patents.
While described as "patent trolls" by some, ... | true | 2016-11-15 | A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious | metaculus | 0 |
2016-09-02 | 2016-04-16 | [] | binary | [["2016-04-23", 0.4], ["2016-04-23", 0.45], ["2016-04-23", 0.695], ["2016-04-23", 0.677], ["2016-04-23", 0.663], ["2016-04-23", 0.738], ["2016-04-23", 0.704], ["2016-04-23", 0.682], ["2016-04-23", 0.713], ["2016-04-23", 0.669], ["2016-04-24", 0.646], ["2016-04-24", 0.641], ["2016-04-24", 0.633], ["2016-04-24", 0.63], [... | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/218/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | The Zika Virus has grown into a major health threat with the realization that this virus, previously considered fairly innocuous, can cause birth defects including microencephaly, as well as many other issues.
Spread primarily by the Aedes Mosquito, Zika is currently being trasmitted person-to-person in 44 countries an... | true | 2016-08-04 | Zapping Zika #1: First vaccine trials by January 2017? | metaculus | 1 |
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