Daily Papers

Generating high-fidelity 3D contents remains a fundamental challenge due to the complexity of representing arbitrary topologies-such as open surfaces and intricate internal structures-while preserving geometric details. Prevailing methods based on signed distance fields (SDFs) are hampered by costly watertight preprocessing and struggle with non-manifold geometries, while point-cloud representations often suffer from sampling artifacts and surface discontinuities. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel 3D variational autoencoder (VAE) framework built upon unsigned distance fields (UDFs)-a more robust and computationally efficient representation that naturally handles complex and incomplete shapes. Our core innovation is a local-to-global (LoG) architecture that processes the UDF by partitioning it into uniform subvolumes, termed UBlocks. This architecture couples 3D convolutions for capturing local detail with sparse transformers for enforcing global coherence. A Pad-Average strategy further ensures smooth transitions at subvolume boundaries during reconstruction. This modular design enables seamless scaling to ultra-high resolutions up to 2048^3-a regime previously unattainable for 3D VAEs. Experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in both reconstruction accuracy and generative quality, yielding superior surface smoothness and geometric flexibility.

The average reward criterion is relatively less studied as most existing works in the Reinforcement Learning literature consider the discounted reward criterion. There are few recent works that present on-policy average reward actor-critic algorithms, but average reward off-policy actor-critic is relatively less explored. In this work, we present both on-policy and off-policy deterministic policy gradient theorems for the average reward performance criterion. Using these theorems, we also present an Average Reward Off-Policy Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (ARO-DDPG) Algorithm. We first show asymptotic convergence analysis using the ODE-based method. Subsequently, we provide a finite time analysis of the resulting stochastic approximation scheme with linear function approximator and obtain an epsilon-optimal stationary policy with a sample complexity of Omega(epsilon^{-2.5}). We compare the average reward performance of our proposed ARO-DDPG algorithm and observe better empirical performance compared to state-of-the-art on-policy average reward actor-critic algorithms over MuJoCo-based environments.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

For a two-player imperfect-information extensive-form game (IIEFG) with K time steps and a player action space of size U, the game tree complexity is U^{2K}, causing existing IIEFG solvers to struggle with large or infinite (U,K), e.g., differential games with continuous action spaces. To partially address this scalability challenge, we focus on an important class of 2p0s games where the informed player (P1) knows the payoff while the uninformed player (P2) only has a belief over the set of I possible payoffs. Such games encompass a wide range of scenarios in sports, defense, cybersecurity, and finance. We prove that under mild conditions, P1's (resp. P2's) equilibrium strategy at any infostate concentrates on at most I (resp. I+1) action prototypes. When Ill U, this equilibrium structure causes the game tree complexity to collapse to I^K for P1 when P2 plays pure best responses, and (I+1)^K for P2 in a dual game where P1 plays pure best responses. We then show that exploiting this structure in standard learning modes, i.e., model-free multiagent reinforcement learning and model predictive control, is straightforward, leading to significant improvements in learning accuracy and efficiency from SOTA IIEFG solvers. Our demonstration solves a 22-player football game (K=10, U=infty) where the attacking team has to strategically conceal their intention until a critical moment in order to exploit information advantage. Code is available at https://github.com/ghimiremukesh/cams/tree/iclr

We study the Levine hat problem, a classic combinatorial puzzle introduced by Lionel Levine in 2010. This problem involves a game in which n geq 2 players, each seeing an infinite stack of hats on each of their teammates' heads but not on their own, must simultaneously guess the index of a black hat on their own stack. If one of the players fails to do so, the team loses collectively. The players must therefore come up with a good strategy before the game starts. While the optimal winning probability V_{n} remains unknown even for n=2, we make three key advances. First, we develop a novel geometric framework for representing strategies through measurable functions, providing a new expression of V_{n} and a unified treatment of the game for finite and for infinite stacks via integral formulations. Secondly, we construct a new strategy K_{5} that reaches the conjectured optimal probability of victory : 0.35. We also show that K_{5} is part of a larger class of strategies that allow us to improve current bounds and resolve conjectured inequalities. Finally, we introduce and entirely solve a continuous generalization of the problem, demonstrating that extending to uncountable hat stacks increases the optimal winning probability to exactly 1/2. This generalization naturally leads to a broader and smoother strategic framework, within which we also describe how to compute optimal responses to a range of strategies.

Since the introduction of ChatGPT and GPT-4, these models have been tested across a large number of tasks. Their adeptness across domains is evident, but their aptitude in playing games, and specifically their aptitude in the realm of poker has remained unexplored. Poker is a game that requires decision making under uncertainty and incomplete information. In this paper, we put ChatGPT and GPT-4 through the poker test and evaluate their poker skills. Our findings reveal that while both models display an advanced understanding of poker, encompassing concepts like the valuation of starting hands, playing positions and other intricacies of game theory optimal (GTO) poker, both ChatGPT and GPT-4 are NOT game theory optimal poker players. Profitable strategies in poker are evaluated in expectations over large samples. Through a series of experiments, we first discover the characteristics of optimal prompts and model parameters for playing poker with these models. Our observations then unveil the distinct playing personas of the two models. We first conclude that GPT-4 is a more advanced poker player than ChatGPT. This exploration then sheds light on the divergent poker tactics of the two models: ChatGPT's conservativeness juxtaposed against GPT-4's aggression. In poker vernacular, when tasked to play GTO poker, ChatGPT plays like a nit, which means that it has a propensity to only engage with premium hands and folds a majority of hands. When subjected to the same directive, GPT-4 plays like a maniac, showcasing a loose and aggressive style of play. Both strategies, although relatively advanced, are not game theory optimal.

Competitions for shareable and limited resources have long been studied with strategic agents. In reality, agents often have to learn and maximize the rewards of the resources at the same time. To design an individualized competing policy, we model the competition between agents in a novel multi-player multi-armed bandit (MPMAB) setting where players are selfish and aim to maximize their own rewards. In addition, when several players pull the same arm, we assume that these players averagely share the arms' rewards by expectation. Under this setting, we first analyze the Nash equilibrium when arms' rewards are known. Subsequently, we propose a novel SelfishMPMAB with Averaging Allocation (SMAA) approach based on the equilibrium. We theoretically demonstrate that SMAA could achieve a good regret guarantee for each player when all players follow the algorithm. Additionally, we establish that no single selfish player can significantly increase their rewards through deviation, nor can they detrimentally affect other players' rewards without incurring substantial losses for themselves. We finally validate the effectiveness of the method in extensive synthetic experiments.

We compare the (1,lambda)-EA and the (1 + lambda)-EA on the recently introduced benchmark DisOM, which is the OneMax function with randomly planted local optima. Previous work showed that if all local optima have the same relative height, then the plus strategy never loses more than a factor O(nlog n) compared to the comma strategy. Here we show that even small random fluctuations in the heights of the local optima have a devastating effect for the plus strategy and lead to super-polynomial runtimes. On the other hand, due to their ability to escape local optima, comma strategies are unaffected by the height of the local optima and remain efficient. Our results hold for a broad class of possible distortions and show that the plus strategy, but not the comma strategy, is generally deceived by sparse unstructured fluctuations of a smooth landscape.

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

Group-relative policy optimization methods train language models by generating multiple rollouts per prompt and normalizing rewards with a shared mean reward baseline. In resource-constrained settings where the rollout budget is small, accuracy often degrades. We find that noise in the shared baseline induces advantage sign flips, where some rollouts receive an incorrect advantage sign, and the update direction is reversed. To address this, we propose Median-Centered Group Relative Policy Optimization (MC-GRPO), a simple and effective solution for small-rollout training. Our main idea is to replace the mean baseline with a median baseline: the median is far less sensitive to outlier rewards than the mean, mitigating the sign flips under small rollout size (G). We generate one additional rollout for median reference (G+1), and compute advantages by using the group median. With an odd-sized group, exactly one completion is the median and receives zero advantage, we exclude this pivot rollout from backpropagation so the number of gradient-contributing samples per prompt remains G, preserving the core update cost of standard G-rollout training. Across various GRPO-family methods and a wide range of models and scales, this median-centered training consistently improves stability and final accuracy in the low-rollout regime, reducing the gap between G=2 and G=8 to within 1%. Code is available at https://github.com/lotusroot-kim/MC-GRPO

Large language models have revolutionized natural language processing, yet their deployment remains hampered by the substantial memory and runtime overhead of the transformer's Key-Value cache. To mitigate this, recent methods employ a scoring-aggregation framework to evict unimportant cache entries, based on the stability assumption-that a fixed subset of entries remains consistently important during generation. However, prior work has largely focused on refining importance indicators for scoring, while defaulting to mean aggregation due to a faithful trust in the stability assumption. In this work, we argue that this underlying assumption is inherently fragile, making mean aggregation highly vulnerable in extreme cases. To counter this, we propose a simple yet elegant defensive aggregation strategy: a two-step, linear-time approach that controls worst-case risk, thereby defending against extreme cases with negligible computational overhead. Embodying this strategy, we propose a novel cache eviction method, DefensiveKV and its extension, Layer-DefensiveKV, which incorporates layer-wise budget allocation. Across seven task domains (18 datasets), our methods reduce generation quality loss by 2.3x and 4.3x respectively, versus the strongest baseline under a 20% cache size. These results set new performance benchmarks and pioneer a promising direction for optimizing cache eviction against underlying fragility through worst-case risk management. Our code is available at https://github.com/FFY0/DefensiveKV.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a powerful model compression technique broadly used in practical deep learning applications. It is focused on training a small student network to mimic a larger teacher network. While it is widely known that KD can offer an improvement to student generalization in i.i.d setting, its performance under domain shift, i.e. the performance of student networks on data from domains unseen during training, has received little attention in the literature. In this paper we make a step towards bridging the research fields of knowledge distillation and domain generalization. We show that weight averaging techniques proposed in domain generalization literature, such as SWAD and SMA, also improve the performance of knowledge distillation under domain shift. In addition, we propose a simplistic weight averaging strategy that does not require evaluation on validation data during training and show that it performs on par with SWAD and SMA when applied to KD. We name our final distillation approach Weight-Averaged Knowledge Distillation (WAKD).

The success of Deepseek-R1 has drawn the LLM community's attention to reinforcement learning (RL) methods like GRPO. However, such rule-based 0/1 outcome reward methods lack the capability to regulate the intermediate reasoning processes during chain-of-thought (CoT) generation, leading to severe overthinking phenomena. In response, recent studies have designed reward functions to reinforce models' behaviors in producing shorter yet correct completions. Nevertheless, we observe that these length-penalty reward functions exacerbate RL training instability: as the completion length decreases, model accuracy abruptly collapses, often occurring early in training. To address this issue, we propose a simple yet effective solution GRPO-lambda, an efficient and stabilized variant of GRPO, which dynamically adjusts the reward strategy by monitoring the correctness ratio among completions within each query-sampled group. A low correctness ratio indicates the need to avoid length penalty that compromises CoT quality, triggering a switch to length-agnostic 0/1 rewards that prioritize reasoning capability. A high ratio maintains length penalties to boost efficiency. Experimental results show that our approach avoids training instability caused by length penalty while maintaining the optimal accuracy-efficiency trade-off. On the GSM8K, GPQA, MATH-500, AMC 2023, and AIME 2024 benchmarks, it improves average accuracy by 1.48% while reducing CoT sequence length by 47.3%.

This paper proposes a reinforcement learning framework that employs Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to dynamically optimize the weights of multiple large language model (LLM)-generated formulaic alphas for stock trading strategies. Formulaic alphas are mathematically defined trading signals derived from price, volume, sentiment, and other data. Although recent studies have shown that LLMs can generate diverse and effective alphas, a critical challenge lies in how to adaptively integrate them under varying market conditions. To address this gap, we leverage the deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b model to generate fifty alphas for five major stocks: Apple, HSBC, Pepsi, Toyota, and Tencent, and then use PPO to adjust their weights in real time. Experimental results demonstrate that the PPO-optimized strategy achieves strong returns and high Sharpe ratios across most stocks, outperforming both an equal-weighted alpha portfolio and traditional benchmarks such as the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index. The findings highlight the importance of reinforcement learning in the allocation of alpha weights and show the potential of combining LLM-generated signals with adaptive optimization for robust financial forecasting and trading.

Standard neural networks struggle to generalize under distribution shifts in computer vision. Fortunately, combining multiple networks can consistently improve out-of-distribution generalization. In particular, weight averaging (WA) strategies were shown to perform best on the competitive DomainBed benchmark; they directly average the weights of multiple networks despite their nonlinearities. In this paper, we propose Diverse Weight Averaging (DiWA), a new WA strategy whose main motivation is to increase the functional diversity across averaged models. To this end, DiWA averages weights obtained from several independent training runs: indeed, models obtained from different runs are more diverse than those collected along a single run thanks to differences in hyperparameters and training procedures. We motivate the need for diversity by a new bias-variance-covariance-locality decomposition of the expected error, exploiting similarities between WA and standard functional ensembling. Moreover, this decomposition highlights that WA succeeds when the variance term dominates, which we show occurs when the marginal distribution changes at test time. Experimentally, DiWA consistently improves the state of the art on DomainBed without inference overhead.

Realistic environments often provide agents with very limited feedback. When the environment is initially unknown, the feedback, in the beginning, can be completely absent, and the agents may first choose to devote all their effort on exploring efficiently. The exploration remains a challenge while it has been addressed with many hand-tuned heuristics with different levels of generality on one side, and a few theoretically-backed exploration strategies on the other. Many of them are incarnated by intrinsic motivation and in particular explorations bonuses. A common rule of thumb for exploration bonuses is to use 1/n bonus that is added to the empirical estimates of the reward, where n is a number of times this particular state (or a state-action pair) was visited. We show that, surprisingly, for a pure-exploration objective of reward-free exploration, bonuses that scale with 1/n bring faster learning rates, improving the known upper bounds with respect to the dependence on the horizon H. Furthermore, we show that with an improved analysis of the stopping time, we can improve by a factor H the sample complexity in the best-policy identification setting, which is another pure-exploration objective, where the environment provides rewards but the agent is not penalized for its behavior during the exploration phase.

Enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models effectively using reinforcement learning (RL) remains a crucial challenge. Existing approaches primarily adopt two contrasting advantage estimation granularities: Token-level methods (e.g., PPO) aim to provide the fine-grained advantage signals but suffer from inaccurate estimation due to difficulties in training an accurate critic model. On the other extreme, trajectory-level methods (e.g., GRPO) solely rely on a coarse-grained advantage signal from the final reward, leading to imprecise credit assignment. To address these limitations, we propose Segment Policy Optimization (SPO), a novel RL framework that leverages segment-level advantage estimation at an intermediate granularity, achieving a better balance by offering more precise credit assignment than trajectory-level methods and requiring fewer estimation points than token-level methods, enabling accurate advantage estimation based on Monte Carlo (MC) without a critic model. SPO features three components with novel strategies: (1) flexible segment partition; (2) accurate segment advantage estimation; and (3) policy optimization using segment advantages, including a novel probability-mask strategy. We further instantiate SPO for two specific scenarios: (1) SPO-chain for short chain-of-thought (CoT), featuring novel cutpoint-based partition and chain-based advantage estimation, achieving 6-12 percentage point improvements in accuracy over PPO and GRPO on GSM8K. (2) SPO-tree for long CoT, featuring novel tree-based advantage estimation, which significantly reduces the cost of MC estimation, achieving 7-11 percentage point improvements over GRPO on MATH500 under 2K and 4K context evaluation. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/AIFrameResearch/SPO.

Stochastic optimization is one of the central problems in Machine Learning and Theoretical Computer Science. In the standard model, the algorithm is given a fixed distribution known in advance. In practice though, one may acquire at a cost extra information to make better decisions. In this paper, we study how to buy information for stochastic optimization and formulate this question as an online learning problem. Assuming the learner has an oracle for the original optimization problem, we design a 2-competitive deterministic algorithm and a e/(e-1)-competitive randomized algorithm for buying information. We show that this ratio is tight as the problem is equivalent to a robust generalization of the ski-rental problem, which we call super-martingale stopping. We also consider an adaptive setting where the learner can choose to buy information after taking some actions for the underlying optimization problem. We focus on the classic optimization problem, Min-Sum Set Cover, where the goal is to quickly find an action that covers a given request drawn from a known distribution. We provide an 8-competitive algorithm running in polynomial time that chooses actions and decides when to buy information about the underlying request.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.

Recent progress in Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning is increasingly driven by the refinement of post-training loss functions and alignment strategies. However, standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigms like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) remain constrained by static uniformity: uniform prompt sampling and a fixed number of rollouts per prompt. For heterogeneous, heavy-tailed reasoning data, this creates structural inefficiencies that waste compute on already-solved patterns while under-training the long tail of hard problems. To address this, we propose Multi-Adversary Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), an optimization-first framework that moves beyond uniform reasoning models by dynamically adapting the training distribution. We introduce an Online Difficulty Classifier that partitions prompts into dynamic pass@k difficulty groups. We then propose two independent GDRO games for post-training: (1) Prompt-GDRO, which employs an EMA-debiased multiplicative-weights bandit sampler to target the intensive difficulty margin and upweight persistently hard groups without frequency bias; and (2) Rollout-GDRO, which uses a shadow-price controller to reallocate rollouts across groups, maximizing gradient variance reduction on hard tasks under a fixed mean budget (compute-neutral). We provide no-regret guarantees for both controllers and additionally a variance-proxy analysis motivating a square-root optimal rollout allocation for Rollout-GDRO. We validate our framework on the DAPO 14.1k dataset using Qwen3-Base models. Prompt-GDRO and Rollout-GDRO achieve average relative gains of +10.6% and +10.1%, respectively, in pass@8 accuracy across 1.7B, 4B, and 8B scales compared to the GRPO baseline. Qualitative analysis shows an emergent curriculum: the adversaries shift resources to the evolving reasoning frontier, enhancing the reasoning model's performance.

Learning optimal policies in sparse rewards settings is difficult as the learning agent has little to no feedback on the quality of its actions. In these situations, a good strategy is to focus on exploration, hopefully leading to the discovery of a reward signal to improve on. A learning algorithm capable of dealing with this kind of settings has to be able to (1) explore possible agent behaviors and (2) exploit any possible discovered reward. Efficient exploration algorithms have been proposed that require to define a behavior space, that associates to an agent its resulting behavior in a space that is known to be worth exploring. The need to define this space is a limitation of these algorithms. In this work, we introduce STAX, an algorithm designed to learn a behavior space on-the-fly and to explore it while efficiently optimizing any reward discovered. It does so by separating the exploration and learning of the behavior space from the exploitation of the reward through an alternating two-steps process. In the first step, STAX builds a repertoire of diverse policies while learning a low-dimensional representation of the high-dimensional observations generated during the policies evaluation. In the exploitation step, emitters are used to optimize the performance of the discovered rewarding solutions. Experiments conducted on three different sparse reward environments show that STAX performs comparably to existing baselines while requiring much less prior information about the task as it autonomously builds the behavior space.

In this paper, we focus on quantifying model stability as a function of random seed by investigating the effects of the induced randomness on model performance and the robustness of the model in general. We specifically perform a controlled study on the effect of random seeds on the behaviour of attention, gradient-based and surrogate model based (LIME) interpretations. Our analysis suggests that random seeds can adversely affect the consistency of models resulting in counterfactual interpretations. We propose a technique called Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (ASWA)and an extension called Norm-filtered Aggressive Stochastic Weight Averaging (NASWA) which improves the stability of models over random seeds. With our ASWA and NASWA based optimization, we are able to improve the robustness of the original model, on average reducing the standard deviation of the model's performance by 72%.

Poker, also known as Texas Hold'em, has always been a typical research target within imperfect information games (IIGs). IIGs have long served as a measure of artificial intelligence (AI) development. Representative prior works, such as DeepStack and Libratus heavily rely on counterfactual regret minimization (CFR) to tackle heads-up no-limit Poker. However, it is challenging for subsequent researchers to learn CFR from previous models and apply it to other real-world applications due to the expensive computational cost of CFR iterations. Additionally, CFR is difficult to apply to multi-player games due to the exponential growth of the game tree size. In this work, we introduce PokerGPT, an end-to-end solver for playing Texas Hold'em with arbitrary number of players and gaining high win rates, established on a lightweight large language model (LLM). PokerGPT only requires simple textual information of Poker games for generating decision-making advice, thus guaranteeing the convenient interaction between AI and humans. We mainly transform a set of textual records acquired from real games into prompts, and use them to fine-tune a lightweight pre-trained LLM using reinforcement learning human feedback technique. To improve fine-tuning performance, we conduct prompt engineering on raw data, including filtering useful information, selecting behaviors of players with high win rates, and further processing them into textual instruction using multiple prompt engineering techniques. Through the experiments, we demonstrate that PokerGPT outperforms previous approaches in terms of win rate, model size, training time, and response speed, indicating the great potential of LLMs in solving IIGs.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

Reinforcement learning (RL) theory has largely focused on proving minimax sample complexity bounds. These require strategic exploration algorithms that use relatively limited function classes for representing the policy or value function. Our goal is to explain why deep RL algorithms often perform well in practice, despite using random exploration and much more expressive function classes like neural networks. Our work arrives at an explanation by showing that many stochastic MDPs can be solved by performing only a few steps of value iteration on the random policy's Q function and then acting greedily. When this is true, we find that it is possible to separate the exploration and learning components of RL, making it much easier to analyze. We introduce a new RL algorithm, SQIRL, that iteratively learns a near-optimal policy by exploring randomly to collect rollouts and then performing a limited number of steps of fitted-Q iteration over those rollouts. Any regression algorithm that satisfies basic in-distribution generalization properties can be used in SQIRL to efficiently solve common MDPs. This can explain why deep RL works, since it is empirically established that neural networks generalize well in-distribution. Furthermore, SQIRL explains why random exploration works well in practice. We leverage SQIRL to derive instance-dependent sample complexity bounds for RL that are exponential only in an "effective horizon" of lookahead and on the complexity of the class used for function approximation. Empirically, we also find that SQIRL performance strongly correlates with PPO and DQN performance in a variety of stochastic environments, supporting that our theoretical analysis is predictive of practical performance. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/cassidylaidlaw/effective-horizon.

Proportionality is an attractive fairness concept that has been applied to a range of problems including the facility location problem, a classic problem in social choice. In our work, we propose a concept called Strong Proportionality, which ensures that when there are two groups of agents at different locations, both groups incur the same total cost. We show that although Strong Proportionality is a well-motivated and basic axiom, there is no deterministic strategyproof mechanism satisfying the property. We then identify a randomized mechanism called Random Rank (which uniformly selects a number k between 1 to n and locates the facility at the k'th highest agent location) which satisfies Strong Proportionality in expectation. Our main theorem characterizes Random Rank as the unique mechanism that achieves universal truthfulness, universal anonymity, and Strong Proportionality in expectation among all randomized mechanisms. Finally, we show via the AverageOrRandomRank mechanism that even stronger ex-post fairness guarantees can be achieved by weakening universal truthfulness to strategyproofness in expectation.

This work builds on the theoretical frameworks presented in "Liquidity pools as mean field games: A new framework" and "Liquidity pools as mean field games with transaction costs" by the same author, where the strategic interactions among traders in a constant-product market-making protocol were modelled using mean field games (MFG), first without transaction costs and then incorporating them. Here we present the formulation of a more complete model that integrates three types of agents: traders, liquidity providers (LPs), and arbitrageurs. While we do not establish existence results for this general model, the formulation identifies the main technical difficulties and lays the groundwork for future work. The LP acts as a dominating player in the sense of 'Mean field games with a dominating player' by Bensoussan, Chau, and Yam: its strategy influences the mean field distribution of the traders, and the equilibrium is sought as a solution to the coupled system of three problems that constitute a Major-Minor game. The arbitrageurs operate by solving the optimization problem presented in "An analysis of uniswap markets" by Angeris et al., and their impact on the LP is captured through the loss-versus-rebalancing of "Automated market making and loss-versus-rebalancing" by Milionis et al. The material in this article should be read as an open research proposal rather than a collection of closed results.

We present a Spades bidding algorithm that is superior to recreational human players and to publicly available bots. Like in Bridge, the game of Spades is composed of two independent phases, bidding and playing. This paper focuses on the bidding algorithm, since this phase holds a precise challenge: based on the input, choose the bid that maximizes the agent's winning probability. Our Bidding-in-Spades (BIS) algorithm heuristically determines the bidding strategy by comparing the expected utility of each possible bid. A major challenge is how to estimate these expected utilities. To this end, we propose a set of domain-specific heuristics, and then correct them via machine learning using data from real-world players. The \BIS algorithm we present can be attached to any playing algorithm. It beats rule-based bidding bots when all use the same playing component. When combined with a rule-based playing algorithm, it is superior to the average recreational human.

We consider stochastic sequential learning problems where the learner can observe the average reward of several actions. Such a setting is interesting in many applications involving monitoring and surveillance, where the set of the actions to observe represent some (geographical) area. The importance of this setting is that in these applications, it is actually cheaper to observe average reward of a group of actions rather than the reward of a single action. We show that when the reward is smooth over a given graph representing the neighboring actions, we can maximize the cumulative reward of learning while minimizing the sensing cost. In this paper we propose CheapUCB, an algorithm that matches the regret guarantees of the known algorithms for this setting and at the same time guarantees a linear cost again over them. As a by-product of our analysis, we establish a Ω(dT) lower bound on the cumulative regret of spectral bandits for a class of graphs with effective dimension d.

We revisit policy-gradient optimization for Large Language Models (LLMs) from a single-stream perspective. Prevailing group-based methods like GRPO reduce variance with on-the-fly baselines but suffer from critical flaws: frequent degenerate groups erase learning signals, and synchronization barriers hinder scalability. We introduce Single-stream Policy Optimization (SPO), which eliminates these issues by design. SPO replaces per-group baselines with a persistent, KL-adaptive value tracker and normalizes advantages globally across the batch, providing a stable, low-variance learning signal for every sample. Being group-free, SPO enables higher throughput and scales effectively in long-horizon or tool-integrated settings where generation times vary. Furthermore, the persistent value tracker naturally enables an adaptive curriculum via prioritized sampling. Experiments using Qwen3-8B show that SPO converges more smoothly and attains higher accuracy than GRPO, while eliminating computation wasted on degenerate groups. Ablation studies confirm that SPO's gains stem from its principled approach to baseline estimation and advantage normalization, offering a more robust and efficient path for LLM reasoning. Across five hard math benchmarks with Qwen3 8B, SPO improves the average maj@32 by +3.4 percentage points (pp) over GRPO, driven by substantial absolute point gains on challenging datasets, including +7.3 pp on BRUMO 25, +4.4 pp on AIME 25, +3.3 pp on HMMT 25, and achieves consistent relative gain in pass@k across the evaluated k values. SPO's success challenges the prevailing trend of adding incidental complexity to RL algorithms, highlighting a path where fundamental principles, not architectural workarounds, drive the next wave of progress in LLM reasoning.

Reinforcement learning often needs to deal with the exponential growth of states and actions when exploring optimal control in high-dimensional spaces (often known as the curse of dimensionality). In this work, we address this issue by learning the inherent structure of action-wise similar MDP to appropriately balance the performance degradation versus sample/computational complexity. In particular, we partition the action spaces into multiple groups based on the similarity in transition distribution and reward function, and build a linear decomposition model to capture the difference between the intra-group transition kernel and the intra-group rewards. Both our theoretical analysis and experiments reveal a surprising and counter-intuitive result: while a more refined grouping strategy can reduce the approximation error caused by treating actions in the same group as identical, it also leads to increased estimation error when the size of samples or the computation resources is limited. This finding highlights the grouping strategy as a new degree of freedom that can be optimized to minimize the overall performance loss. To address this issue, we formulate a general optimization problem for determining the optimal grouping strategy, which strikes a balance between performance loss and sample/computational complexity. We further propose a computationally efficient method for selecting a nearly-optimal grouping strategy, which maintains its computational complexity independent of the size of the action space.

In risk-averse reinforcement learning (RL), the goal is to optimize some risk measure of the returns. A risk measure often focuses on the worst returns out of the agent's experience. As a result, standard methods for risk-averse RL often ignore high-return strategies. We prove that under certain conditions this inevitably leads to a local-optimum barrier, and propose a soft risk mechanism to bypass it. We also devise a novel Cross Entropy module for risk sampling, which (1) preserves risk aversion despite the soft risk; (2) independently improves sample efficiency. By separating the risk aversion of the sampler and the optimizer, we can sample episodes with poor conditions, yet optimize with respect to successful strategies. We combine these two concepts in CeSoR - Cross-entropy Soft-Risk optimization algorithm - which can be applied on top of any risk-averse policy gradient (PG) method. We demonstrate improved risk aversion in maze navigation, autonomous driving, and resource allocation benchmarks, including in scenarios where standard risk-averse PG completely fails.

The performance of acquisition functions for Bayesian optimisation to locate the global optimum of continuous functions is investigated in terms of the Pareto front between exploration and exploitation. We show that Expected Improvement (EI) and the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) always select solutions to be expensively evaluated on the Pareto front, but Probability of Improvement is not guaranteed to do so and Weighted Expected Improvement does so only for a restricted range of weights. We introduce two novel epsilon-greedy acquisition functions. Extensive empirical evaluation of these together with random search, purely exploratory, and purely exploitative search on 10 benchmark problems in 1 to 10 dimensions shows that epsilon-greedy algorithms are generally at least as effective as conventional acquisition functions (e.g., EI and UCB), particularly with a limited budget. In higher dimensions epsilon-greedy approaches are shown to have improved performance over conventional approaches. These results are borne out on a real world computational fluid dynamics optimisation problem and a robotics active learning problem. Our analysis and experiments suggest that the most effective strategy, particularly in higher dimensions, is to be mostly greedy, occasionally selecting a random exploratory solution.

Understanding a student's problem-solving strategy can have a significant impact on effective math learning using Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Adaptive Instructional Systems (AISs). For instance, the ITS/AIS can better personalize itself to correct specific misconceptions that are indicated by incorrect strategies, specific problems can be designed to improve strategies and frustration can be minimized by adapting to a student's natural way of thinking rather than trying to fit a standard strategy for all. While it may be possible for human experts to identify strategies manually in classroom settings with sufficient student interaction, it is not possible to scale this up to big data. Therefore, we leverage advances in Machine Learning and AI methods to perform scalable strategy prediction that is also fair to students at all skill levels. Specifically, we develop an embedding called MVec where we learn a representation based on the mastery of students. We then cluster these embeddings with a non-parametric clustering method where we progressively learn clusters such that we group together instances that have approximately symmetrical strategies. The strategy prediction model is trained on instances sampled from these clusters. This ensures that we train the model over diverse strategies and also that strategies from a particular group do not bias the DNN model, thus allowing it to optimize its parameters over all groups. Using real world large-scale student interaction datasets from MATHia, we implement our approach using transformers and Node2Vec for learning the mastery embeddings and LSTMs for predicting strategies. We show that our approach can scale up to achieve high accuracy by training on a small sample of a large dataset and also has predictive equality, i.e., it can predict strategies equally well for learners at diverse skill levels.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can self-improve through reinforcement learning, where they generate trajectories to explore and discover better solutions. However, this exploration process is computationally expensive, often forcing current methods to assign limited exploration budgets to each task. This uniform allocation creates problematic edge cases: easy tasks consistently succeed while difficult tasks consistently fail, both producing zero gradients during training updates for the widely used Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). We address this problem from the lens of exploration budget allocation. Viewing each task's exploration as an "item" with a distinct "value" and "cost", we establish a connection to the classical knapsack problem. This formulation allows us to derive an optimal assignment rule that adaptively distributes resources based on the model's current learning status. When applied to GRPO, our method increases the effective ratio of non-zero policy gradients by 20-40% during training. Acting as a computational "free lunch", our approach could reallocate exploration budgets from tasks where learning is saturated to those where it is most impactful. This enables significantly larger budgets (e.g., 93 rollouts) for especially challenging problems, which would be computationally prohibitive under a uniform allocation. These improvements translate to meaningful gains on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, with average improvements of 2-4 points and peak gains of 9 points on specific tasks. Notably, achieving comparable performance with traditional homogeneous allocation would require about 2x the computational resources.

When verifying computer systems we sometimes want to study their asymptotic behaviors, i.e., how they behave in the long run. In such cases, we need real analysis, the area of mathematics that deals with limits and the foundations of calculus. In a prior work, we used real analysis in ACL2s to study the asymptotic behavior of the RTO computation, commonly used in congestion control algorithms across the Internet. One key component in our RTO computation analysis was proving in ACL2s that for all alpha in [0, 1), the limit as n approaches infinity of alpha raised to n is zero. Whereas the most obvious proof strategy involves the logarithm, whose codomain includes irrationals, by default ACL2 only supports rationals, which forced us to take a non-standard approach. In this paper, we explore different approaches to proving the above result in ACL2(r) and ACL2s, from the perspective of a relatively new user to each. We also contextualize the theorem by showing how it allowed us to prove important asymptotic properties of the RTO computation. Finally, we discuss tradeoffs between the various proof strategies and directions for future research.

We study the incentivized information acquisition problem, where a principal hires an agent to gather information on her behalf. Such a problem is modeled as a Stackelberg game between the principal and the agent, where the principal announces a scoring rule that specifies the payment, and then the agent then chooses an effort level that maximizes her own profit and reports the information. We study the online setting of such a problem from the principal's perspective, i.e., designing the optimal scoring rule by repeatedly interacting with the strategic agent. We design a provably sample efficient algorithm that tailors the UCB algorithm (Auer et al., 2002) to our model, which achieves a sublinear T^{2/3}-regret after T iterations. Our algorithm features a delicate estimation procedure for the optimal profit of the principal, and a conservative correction scheme that ensures the desired agent's actions are incentivized. Furthermore, a key feature of our regret bound is that it is independent of the number of states of the environment.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

Recent work on enhancing the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) has introduced explicit length control as a means of constraining computational cost while preserving accuracy. However, existing approaches rely on fixed-length training budgets, which do not take advantage of the natural progression from exploration to compression during learning. In this work, we propose a curriculum learning strategy for length-controlled reasoning using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Our method starts with generous token budgets and gradually tightens them over training, encouraging models to first discover effective solution strategies and then distill them into more concise reasoning traces. We augment GRPO with a reward function that balances three signals: task correctness (via verifier feedback), length efficiency, and formatting adherence (via structural tags). Experiments on GSM8K, MATH500, SVAMP, College Math, and GSM+ demonstrate that curriculum-based training consistently outperforms fixed-budget baselines at the same final budget, achieving higher accuracy and significantly improved token efficiency. We further ablate the impact of reward weighting and decay schedule design, showing that progressive constraint serves as a powerful inductive bias for training efficient reasoning models. Our code and checkpoints are released at: https://github.com/hammoudhasan/curriculum_grpo.

We resolve the open question regarding the sample complexity of policy learning for maximizing the long-run average reward associated with a uniformly ergodic Markov decision process (MDP), assuming a generative model. In this context, the existing literature provides a sample complexity upper bound of widetilde O(|S||A|t_{mix}^2 epsilon^{-2}) and a lower bound of Omega(|S||A|t_{mix} epsilon^{-2}). In these expressions, |S| and |A| denote the cardinalities of the state and action spaces respectively, t_{mix} serves as a uniform upper limit for the total variation mixing times, and epsilon signifies the error tolerance. Therefore, a notable gap of t_{mix} still remains to be bridged. Our primary contribution is the development of an estimator for the optimal policy of average reward MDPs with a sample complexity of widetilde O(|S||A|t_{mix}epsilon^{-2}). This marks the first algorithm and analysis to reach the literature's lower bound. Our new algorithm draws inspiration from ideas in Li et al. (2020), Jin and Sidford (2021), and Wang et al. (2023). Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate our theoretical findings.

We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We present two methods to use the martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms. The first one minimizes a "martingale loss function", whose solution is proved to be the best approximation of the true value function in the mean--square sense. This method interprets the classical gradient Monte-Carlo algorithm. The second method is based on a system of equations called the "martingale orthogonality conditions" with test functions. Solving these equations in different ways recovers various classical TD algorithms, such as TD(lambda), LSTD, and GTD. Different choices of test functions determine in what sense the resulting solutions approximate the true value function. Moreover, we prove that any convergent time-discretized algorithm converges to its continuous-time counterpart as the mesh size goes to zero, and we provide the convergence rate. We demonstrate the theoretical results and corresponding algorithms with numerical experiments and applications.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

Most value function learning algorithms in reinforcement learning are based on the mean squared (projected) Bellman error. However, squared errors are known to be sensitive to outliers, both skewing the solution of the objective and resulting in high-magnitude and high-variance gradients. To control these high-magnitude updates, typical strategies in RL involve clipping gradients, clipping rewards, rescaling rewards, or clipping errors. While these strategies appear to be related to robust losses -- like the Huber loss -- they are built on semi-gradient update rules which do not minimize a known loss. In this work, we build on recent insights reformulating squared Bellman errors as a saddlepoint optimization problem and propose a saddlepoint reformulation for a Huber Bellman error and Absolute Bellman error. We start from a formalization of robust losses, then derive sound gradient-based approaches to minimize these losses in both the online off-policy prediction and control settings. We characterize the solutions of the robust losses, providing insight into the problem settings where the robust losses define notably better solutions than the mean squared Bellman error. Finally, we show that the resulting gradient-based algorithms are more stable, for both prediction and control, with less sensitivity to meta-parameters.

We consider strategy proof mechanisms for facility location which maximize equitability between agents. As is common in the literature, we measure equitability with the Gini index. We first prove a simple but fundamental impossibility result that no strategy proof mechanism can bound the approximation ratio of the optimal Gini index of utilities for one or more facilities. We propose instead computing approximation ratios of the complemented Gini index of utilities, and consider how well both deterministic and randomized mechanisms approximate this. In addition, as Nash welfare is often put forwards as an equitable compromise between egalitarian and utilitarian outcomes, we consider how well mechanisms approximate the Nash welfare.

Intermittent Androgen Suppression (IAS) is a treatment strategy for delaying or even preventing time to relapse of advanced prostate cancer. IAS consists of alternating cycles of therapy (in the form of androgen suppression) and off-treatment periods. The level of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a patient's serum is frequently monitored to determine when the patient will be taken off therapy and when therapy will resume. In spite of extensive recent clinical experience with IAS, the design of an ideal protocol for any given patient remains one of the main challenges associated with effectively implementing this therapy. We use a threshold-based policy for optimal IAS therapy design that is parameterized by lower and upper PSA threshold values and is associated with a cost metric that combines clinically relevant measures of therapy success. We apply Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) to a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) model of prostate cancer evolution under IAS and derive unbiased estimators of the cost metric gradient with respect to various model and therapy parameters. These estimators are subsequently used for system analysis. By evaluating sensitivity estimates with respect to several model parameters, we identify critical parameters and demonstrate that relaxing the optimality condition in favor of increased robustness to modeling errors provides an alternative objective to therapy design for at least some patients.

This study addresses the challenge of estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) for advertising campaigns in online marketplaces where complete randomized experimentation is infeasible. We propose two key innovations: (1) a shrinkage estimator that optimally combines observational and experimental data without assuming smooth treatment effects across campaigns, and (2) a Bayesian adaptive experimental design framework that efficiently selects campaigns for randomized evaluation that minimizes cumulative risk. Our shrinkage estimator achieves lower risk compared to existing methods by balancing bias-variance tradeoffs, while our adaptive design significantly reduces the costs of campaign randomization. We establish theoretical guarantees including asymptotic normality and regret bounds. In an application to Amazon Ads data analyzing 2,583 campaigns, our approach achieves equivalent estimation precision while requiring only half of the randomized experiments needed by random sampling, the standard method widely used in practice today. The proposed method serves as a practical solution for marketplace platforms to efficiently measure advertising effectiveness while managing experimentation costs.

This paper develops a policy learning method for tuning a pre-trained policy to adapt to additional tasks without altering the original task. A method named Adaptive Policy Gradient (APG) is proposed in this paper, which combines Bellman's principle of optimality with the policy gradient approach to improve the convergence rate. This paper provides theoretical analysis which guarantees the convergence rate and sample complexity of O(1/T) and O(1/epsilon), respectively, where T denotes the number of iterations and epsilon denotes the accuracy of the resulting stationary policy. Furthermore, several challenging numerical simulations, including cartpole, lunar lander, and robot arm, are provided to show that APG obtains similar performance compared to existing deterministic policy gradient methods while utilizing much less data and converging at a faster rate.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) assigns a single scalar advantage to all tokens in a completion. For structured generations with explicit segments and objectives, this couples unrelated reward signals across segments, leading to objective interference and misattributed credit. We propose Blockwise Advantage Estimation, a family of GRPO-compatible methods that assigns each objective its own advantage and applies it only to the tokens in the corresponding text block, reducing reliance on hand-designed scalar rewards and scaling naturally to additional objectives. A key challenge is estimating advantages for later blocks whose rewards are conditioned on sampled prefixes; standard unbiased approaches require expensive nested rollouts from intermediate states. Concretely, we introduce an Outcome-Conditioned Baseline that approximates intermediate state values using only within-group statistics by stratifying samples according to a prefix-derived intermediate outcome. On math tasks with uncertainty estimation, our method mitigates reward interference, is competitive with a state-of-the-art reward-designed approach, and preserves test-time gains from confidence-weighted ensembling. More broadly, it provides a modular recipe for optimizing sequential objectives in structured generations without additional rollouts.