Daily Papers

A lot of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) research is of an empirical nature. Nevertheless, statistical significance testing (SST) is still not widely used. This endangers true progress, as seeming improvements over a baseline might be statistical flukes, leading follow-up research astray while wasting human and computational resources. Here, we provide an easy-to-use package containing different significance tests and utility functions specifically tailored towards research needs and usability.

Creating test collections for offline retrieval evaluation requires human effort to judge documents' relevance. This expensive activity motivated much work in developing methods for constructing benchmarks with fewer assessment costs. In this respect, adjudication methods actively decide both which documents and the order in which experts review them, in order to better exploit the assessment budget or to lower it. Researchers evaluate the quality of those methods by measuring the correlation between the known gold ranking of systems under the full collection and the observed ranking of systems under the lower-cost one. This traditional analysis ignores whether and how the low-cost judgements impact on the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to the full collection. We fill this void by proposing a novel methodology to evaluate how the low-cost adjudication methods preserve the pairwise significant differences between systems as the full collection. In other terms, while traditional approaches look for stability in answering the question "is system A better than system B?", our proposed approach looks for stability in answering the question "is system A significantly better than system B?", which is the ultimate questions researchers need to answer to guarantee the generalisability of their results. Among other results, we found that the best methods in terms of ranking of systems correlation do not always match those preserving statistical significance.

Recent observations by the James Webb Space Telescope have revealed massive galaxies at very high redshift (zsimeq 7-15). The question of whether the existence of such galaxies is expected in the corresponding JWST surveys has received a lot of attention, though the answer straddles areas of cosmology and complex astrophysical details of high-redshift galaxy formation. The growth rate of density fluctuations determines the amplitude of overdensities that collapse to form galaxies. Late-time modifications of growth, combined with measurements at both zsim 1 from large-scale structure and zsim 1000 from the cosmic microwave background, affect the predictions for the abundance of first galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we point out that the late-time growth rate of structure affects the statistical significance of high-redshift, high-mass objects very weakly. Consequently, if the existence and abundance of these objects are confirmed to be unexpected, the variations in the late-time growth history are unlikely to explain these anomalies.

Machine Translation has made impressive progress in recent years offering close to human-level performance on many languages, but studies have primarily focused on high-resource languages with broad online presence and resources. With the help of growing Large Language Models, more and more low-resource languages achieve better results through the presence of other languages. However, studies have shown that not all low-resource languages can benefit from multilingual systems, especially those with insufficient training and evaluation data. In this paper, we revisit state-of-the-art Neural Machine Translation techniques to develop automatic translation systems between German and Bavarian. We investigate conditions of low-resource languages such as data scarcity and parameter sensitivity and focus on refined solutions that combat low-resource difficulties and creative solutions such as harnessing language similarity. Our experiment entails applying Back-translation and Transfer Learning to automatically generate more training data and achieve higher translation performance. We demonstrate noisiness in the data and present our approach to carry out text preprocessing extensively. Evaluation was conducted using combined metrics: BLEU, chrF and TER. Statistical significance results with Bonferroni correction show surprisingly high baseline systems, and that Back-translation leads to significant improvement. Furthermore, we present a qualitative analysis of translation errors and system limitations.

Coopetition refers to simultaneous cooperation and competition among actors wherein actors 'cooperate to grow the pie and compete to split it up.' Modern socio-technical systems are characterized by strategic coopetition wherein actors concomitantly cooperate to create value and compete to capture it. While conceptual modeling languages such as i* provide rich qualitative representations of strategic dependencies, they lack mechanisms for quantitative analysis of dynamic trade-offs. Conversely, classical game theory offers mathematical rigor but strips away contextual richness. This report bridges this gap by developing computational foundations that formalize two critical dimensions of coopetition: interdependence and complementarity. We ground interdependence in i* structural dependency analysis, translating depender-dependee-dependum relationships into quantitative interdependence coefficients via a structured translation framework. We formalize complementarity following Brandenburger and Nalebuff's Added Value concept, modeling synergistic value creation with validated parameterization. We integrate structural dependencies with bargaining power in value appropriation and introduce a game-theoretic formulation where Nash Equilibrium incorporates structural interdependence. Validation combines over 22,000 experimental trials across power and logarithmic specifications with the Samsung-Sony S-LCD joint venture (2004-2011). Under strict historical alignment scoring, logarithmic specifications achieve 58/60 compared to power functions (46/60), producing realistic 41% cooperation increases aligning with documented S-LCD patterns while power functions produce 166% increases exceeding realistic bounds. Statistical significance confirmed at p < 0.001, Cohen's d > 9.

This study evaluates Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents for Dhumbal, a culturally significant multiplayer card game with imperfect information, through a systematic comparison of rule-based, search-based, and learning-based strategies. We formalize Dhumbal's mechanics and implement diverse agents, including heuristic approaches (Aggressive, Conservative, Balanced, Opportunistic), search-based methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and Information Set Monte Carlo Tree Search (ISMCTS), and reinforcement learning approaches including Deep Q-Network (DQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and a random baseline. Evaluation involves within-category tournaments followed by a cross-category championship. Performance is measured via win rate, economic outcome, Jhyap success, cards discarded per round, risk assessment, and decision efficiency. Statistical significance is assessed using Welch's t-test with Bonferroni correction, effect sizes via Cohen's d, and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Across 1024 simulated rounds, the rule-based Aggressive agent achieves the highest win rate (88.3%, 95% CI: [86.3, 90.3]), outperforming ISMCTS (9.0%) and PPO (1.5%) through effective exploitation of Jhyap declarations. The study contributes a reproducible AI framework, insights into heuristic efficacy under partial information, and open-source code, thereby advancing AI research and supporting digital preservation of cultural games.

Purpose: Accurate segmentation of clinical target volumes (CTV) and organs-at-risk is crucial for optimizing gynecologic brachytherapy (GYN-BT) treatment planning. However, anatomical variability, low soft-tissue contrast in CT imaging, and limited annotated datasets pose significant challenges. This study presents GynBTNet, a novel multi-stage learning framework designed to enhance segmentation performance through self-supervised pretraining and hierarchical fine-tuning strategies. Methods: GynBTNet employs a three-stage training strategy: (1) self-supervised pretraining on large-scale CT datasets using sparse submanifold convolution to capture robust anatomical representations, (2) supervised fine-tuning on a comprehensive multi-organ segmentation dataset to refine feature extraction, and (3) task-specific fine-tuning on a dedicated GYN-BT dataset to optimize segmentation performance for clinical applications. The model was evaluated against state-of-the-art methods using the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), 95th percentile Hausdorff Distance (HD95), and Average Surface Distance (ASD). Results: Our GynBTNet achieved superior segmentation performance, significantly outperforming nnU-Net and Swin-UNETR. Notably, it yielded a DSC of 0.837 +/- 0.068 for CTV, 0.940 +/- 0.052 for the bladder, 0.842 +/- 0.070 for the rectum, and 0.871 +/- 0.047 for the uterus, with reduced HD95 and ASD compared to baseline models. Self-supervised pretraining led to consistent performance improvements, particularly for structures with complex boundaries. However, segmentation of the sigmoid colon remained challenging, likely due to anatomical ambiguities and inter-patient variability. Statistical significance analysis confirmed that GynBTNet's improvements were significant compared to baseline models.

Despite advances in Neural Machine Translation (NMT), low-resource languages like Tigrinya remain underserved due to persistent challenges, including limited corpora, inadequate tokenization strategies, and the lack of standardized evaluation benchmarks. This paper investigates transfer learning techniques using multilingual pretrained models to enhance translation quality for morphologically rich, low-resource languages. We propose a refined approach that integrates language-specific tokenization, informed embedding initialization, and domain-adaptive fine-tuning. To enable rigorous assessment, we construct a high-quality, human-aligned English-Tigrinya evaluation dataset covering diverse domains. Experimental results demonstrate that transfer learning with a custom tokenizer substantially outperforms zero-shot baselines, with gains validated by BLEU, chrF, and qualitative human evaluation. Bonferroni correction is applied to ensure statistical significance across configurations. Error analysis reveals key limitations and informs targeted refinements. This study underscores the importance of linguistically aware modeling and reproducible benchmarks in bridging the performance gap for underrepresented languages. Resources are available at https://github.com/hailaykidu/MachineT_TigEng and https://huggingface.co/Hailay/MachineT_TigEng

The increasing number of Health Care facilities in Nepal has also added up the challenges on managing health care waste (HCW). Improper segregation and disposal of HCW leads to the contamination, spreading of infectious diseases and puts a risk of waste handlers. This study benchmarks the state of the art waste classification models: ResNeXt-50, EfficientNet-B0, MobileNetV3-S, YOLOv8-n and YOLOv5-s using Stratified K-fold techniques where we use 5 folds on combined HCW data, and found that the YOLOv5-s achieved higher of 95.06% accuracy but fell short few milliseconds in inference speed with YOLOv8-n model. The EfficientNet-B0 showed promising results of 93.22% accuracy but took the highest inference time. A repetitive ANOVA was performed to see statistical significance and the best performing model (YOLOv5-s) was deployed to the web with mapped bin color using Nepal's HCW management standards for public usage. Further work on the data was suggested along with localized context.

In software engineering chatrooms, communication is often hindered by imprecise questions that cannot be answered. Recognizing key entities can be essential for improving question clarity and facilitating better exchange. However, existing research using natural language processing techniques often overlooks these software-specific nuances. In this paper, we introduce Software-specific Named Entity Recognition, Intent Detection, and Resolution Classification (SENIR), a labeling approach that leverages a Large Language Model to annotate entities, intents, and resolution status in developer chatroom conversations. To offer quantitative guidance for improving question clarity and resolvability, we build a resolution prediction model that leverages SENIR's entity and intent labels along with additional predictive features. We evaluate SENIR on the DISCO dataset using a subset of annotated chatroom dialogues. SENIR achieves an 86% F-score for entity recognition, a 71% F-score for intent detection, and an 89% F-score for resolution status classification. Furthermore, our resolution prediction model, tested with various sampling strategies (random undersampling and oversampling with SMOTE) and evaluation methods (5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, and bootstrapping), demonstrates AUC values ranging from 0.7 to 0.8. Key factors influencing resolution include positive sentiment and entities such as Programming Language and User Variable across multiple intents, while diagnostic entities are more relevant in error-related questions. Moreover, resolution rates vary significantly by intent: questions about API Usage and API Change achieve higher resolution rates, whereas Discrepancy and Review have lower resolution rates. A Chi-Square analysis confirms the statistical significance of these differences.

We present BenCzechMark (BCM), the first comprehensive Czech language benchmark designed for large language models, offering diverse tasks, multiple task formats, and multiple evaluation metrics. Its scoring system is grounded in statistical significance theory and uses aggregation across tasks inspired by social preference theory. Our benchmark encompasses 50 challenging tasks, with corresponding test datasets, primarily in native Czech, with 11 newly collected ones. These tasks span 8 categories and cover diverse domains, including historical Czech news, essays from pupils or language learners, and spoken word. Furthermore, we collect and clean BUT-Large Czech Collection, the largest publicly available clean Czech language corpus, and use it for (i) contamination analysis, (ii) continuous pretraining of the first Czech-centric 7B language model, with Czech-specific tokenization. We use our model as a baseline for comparison with publicly available multilingual models. Lastly, we release and maintain a leaderboard, with existing 44 model submissions, where new model submissions can be made at https://huggingface.co/spaces/CZLC/BenCzechMark.

How can we test AI performance? This question seems trivial, but it isn't. Standard benchmarks often have problems such as in-distribution and small-size test sets, oversimplified metrics, unfair comparisons, and short-term outcome pressure. As a consequence, good performance on standard benchmarks does not guarantee success in real-world scenarios. To address these problems, we present Touchstone, a large-scale collaborative segmentation benchmark of 9 types of abdominal organs. This benchmark is based on 5,195 training CT scans from 76 hospitals around the world and 5,903 testing CT scans from 11 additional hospitals. This diverse test set enhances the statistical significance of benchmark results and rigorously evaluates AI algorithms across various out-of-distribution scenarios. We invited 14 inventors of 19 AI algorithms to train their algorithms, while our team, as a third party, independently evaluated these algorithms on three test sets. In addition, we also evaluated pre-existing AI frameworks--which, differing from algorithms, are more flexible and can support different algorithms--including MONAI from NVIDIA, nnU-Net from DKFZ, and numerous other open-source frameworks. We are committed to expanding this benchmark to encourage more innovation of AI algorithms for the medical domain.

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

In contemporary society, widespread social media usage is evident in people's daily lives. Nevertheless, disparities in emotional expressions between the real world and online platforms can manifest. We comprehensively analyzed Persian community on X to explore this phenomenon. An innovative pipeline was designed to measure the similarity between emotions in the real world compared to social media. Accordingly, recent tweets and images of participants were gathered and analyzed using Transformers-based text and image sentiment analysis modules. Each participant's friends also provided insights into the their real-world emotions. A distance criterion was used to compare real-world feelings with virtual experiences. Our study encompassed N=105 participants, 393 friends who contributed their perspectives, over 8,300 collected tweets, and 2,000 media images. Results indicated a 28.67% similarity between images and real-world emotions, while tweets exhibited a 75.88% alignment with real-world feelings. Additionally, the statistical significance confirmed that the observed disparities in sentiment proportions.

This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.

Claim verification can be a challenging task. In this paper, we present a method to enhance the robustness and reasoning capabilities of automated claim verification through the extraction of short facts from evidence. Our novel approach, FactDetect, leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate concise factual statements from evidence and label these facts based on their semantic relevance to the claim and evidence. The generated facts are then combined with the claim and evidence. To train a lightweight supervised model, we incorporate a fact-detection task into the claim verification process as a multitasking approach to improve both performance and explainability. We also show that augmenting FactDetect in the claim verification prompt enhances performance in zero-shot claim verification using LLMs. Our method demonstrates competitive results in the supervised claim verification model by 15% on the F1 score when evaluated for challenging scientific claim verification datasets. We also demonstrate that FactDetect can be augmented with claim and evidence for zero-shot prompting (AugFactDetect) in LLMs for verdict prediction. We show that AugFactDetect outperforms the baseline with statistical significance on three challenging scientific claim verification datasets with an average of 17.3% performance gain compared to the best performing baselines.

The reproducibility of many experimental results in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) is under question. To solve this reproducibility crisis, we propose a theoretically sound methodology to compare multiple Deep RL algorithms. The performance of one execution of a Deep RL algorithm is random so that independent executions are needed to assess it precisely. When comparing several RL algorithms, a major question is how many executions must be made and how can we assure that the results of such a comparison is theoretically sound. Researchers in Deep RL often use less than 5 independent executions to compare algorithms: we claim that this is not enough in general. Moreover, when comparing several algorithms at once, the error of each comparison accumulates and must be taken into account with a multiple tests procedure to preserve low error guarantees. To address this problem in a statistically sound way, we introduce AdaStop, a new statistical test based on multiple group sequential tests. When comparing algorithms, AdaStop adapts the number of executions to stop as early as possible while ensuring that we have enough information to distinguish algorithms that perform better than the others in a statistical significant way. We prove both theoretically and empirically that AdaStop has a low probability of making an error (Family-Wise Error). Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of AdaStop in multiple use-cases, including toy examples and difficult cases such as Mujoco environments.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

Document chunking is a crucial component of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), as it directly affects the retrieval of relevant and precise context. Conventional fixed-length and recursive splitters often produce arbitrary, incoherent segments that fail to preserve semantic structure. Although semantic chunking has gained traction, its influence on generation quality remains underexplored. This paper introduces two efficient semantic chunking methods, Projected Similarity Chunking (PSC) and Metric Fusion Chunking (MFC), trained on PubMed data using three different embedding models. We further present an evaluation framework that measures the effect of chunking on both retrieval and generation by augmenting PubMedQA with full-text PubMed Central articles. Our results show substantial retrieval improvements (24x with PSC) in MRR and higher Hits@k on PubMedQA. We provide a comprehensive analysis, including statistical significance and response-time comparisons with common chunking libraries. Despite being trained on a single domain, PSC and MFC also generalize well, achieving strong out-of-domain generation performance across multiple datasets. Overall, our findings confirm that our semantic chunkers, especially PSC, consistently deliver superior performance.

Large pre-trained language models (PLMs) are at the forefront of advances in Natural Language Processing. One widespread use case of PLMs is "prompting" - or in-context learning - where a user provides a description of a task and some completed examples of the task to a PLM as context before prompting the PLM to perform the task on a new example. Only the largest, most capable PLMs are able to perform in-context learning effectively, and these models are typically trained with a predominantly English corpus, leaving all other languages behind. The data limitations in most languages preclude the training of language-specific PLMs capable of prompting. Albeit the surge in work of prompting settings, it is still unclear how PLMs should be adapted cross-lingually specifically for prompting. We evaluate the possible methods to adapt LLaMa, a 7B parameter open-source PLM mainly trained in English, for prompting in low-resource languages, namely for Kinyarwanda, Hausa, and Luganda. We consider three methods: few-shot prompting (prompt), language-adaptive fine-tuning (LAFT), and neural machine translation (translate), and evaluate on abstractive summarization, multi-class topic classification, and named-entity recognition. Although LAFT carries the greatest compute cost and intuitively should lead to the best results, our experiments exhibit that LAFT is only occasionally the optimal choice for adapting PLMs for prompting. Rather, the translate and prompt settings are a compute-efficient and cost-effective method of few-shot prompting for the selected low-resource languages. We find that the results are task and language dependent but find that the prompting method is the best on average across all tasks and languages. Results show that the prompt setting performs better than both translating and LAFT with statistical significance for all shots when aggregated across all tasks and languages.

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

The significant advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) in generative tasks have led to a growing body of work exploring LLM-based embedding models. While these models, employing different pooling and attention strategies, have achieved state-of-the-art performance on public embedding benchmarks, questions still arise about what constitutes an effective design for LLM-based embedding models. However, these models are often trained on different datasets, using different LLM base models or training settings. Moreover, evaluations on public embedding benchmarks often fail to report statistical significance, making it difficult to determine which designs truly contribute to final performance. This complicates the process for practitioners seeking optimal training recipes for LLM-based embedding models. In this study, we conduct a large-scale experiment by training a series of LLM-based embedding models using the same training data and base model but differing in their pooling and attention strategies. The results show that there is no one-size-fits-all solution: while bidirectional attention and an additional trainable pooling layer outperform in text similarity and information retrieval tasks, they do not significantly surpass simpler designs like EOS-last token pooling and default causal attention in clustering and classification tasks. Furthermore, we propose a new pooling strategy, Multi-Layers Trainable Pooling, which transforms the outputs of all hidden layers, rather than just the last layer, using a cross-attention network. This method proves to be statistically superior in text similarity and retrieval tasks compared to existing pooling methods. Overall, this paper sheds light on effective training strategies for LLM-based embedding models.

A sizeable fraction of gamma-ray burst (GRB) light curves (LCs) features a sequence of peaks, which holds information on the unknown way energy is dissipated into gamma-rays over time. Traditional searches for periodic signals in GRB LCs turned out to be inconclusive, partly because they are challenging as a consequence of the short-lived, coloured-noise, and non-stationary nature of the LCs themselves. Yet, recent claims have revived the issue. We searched for periodic components in GRB LCs through a new approach to GRBs, that avoids most of the issues faced by traditional techniques. We identified peaks through a well tested algorithm and selected GRBs with at least 10 peaks out of 5 GRB catalogues (Swift/BAT, CGRO/BATSE, Fermi/GBM, Insight-HXMT, BeppoSAX/GRBM). Each GRB was simply treated as a discrete point process, whose realisation coincides with the sequence of peak times. We searched for possible periodic recurrences based on the multinomial distribution, after accounting for the clustering of peaks due to the non-stationarity of the GRB signals. The best candidate has a p-value of 3e-4 that there is no periodic recurrence. However, accounting for the multiple trials of 555 searched GRBs, its statistical significance is demoted to 17%. The overall distribution of the p-values obtained for all GRBs is compatible with a uniform distribution in [0,1]. We found no robust evidence for multi-peaked GRBs with periodic recurrences. We can exclude that a sizeable fraction (>~ 0.75) of peaks of each GRB with at least 10 peaks are periodic. While our result does not necessarily clash with claimed periodicities based on Fourier techniques, it constrains the putative recurrent behaviour, which would not manifest itself through the sequence of peaks, but, evidently, in a more elusive way.

We develop a novel way to probe subgalactic-scale matter distribution with diffractive lensing on gravitational waves. Five-year observations from Einstein Telescope and DECIGO are expected to probe k= 10^5sim 10^8 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1} down to P(k) = 10^{-16} sim 10^{-14} ,{rm Mpc}^3 level. These results can be interpreted in terms of primordial black holes in the range M_{rm PBH} gtrsim 10^{-3}M_odot down to f_{rm PBH} = 10^{-6} level, or QCD axion minihalos in the range m_a = 10^{-3} sim 10^{-12} ,{rm eV}. A key result of the paper is the approximate relation between the scale k and the gravitational wave frequency f, derived in an ensemble of `multi-lensing' events. This relation enables direct measurement of the power spectrum at specific scales, with sensitivities characterized by model-independent kernels delta P(k). Additionally, we delineate the statistical properties of `multi-lensing' based on the `Fresnel number' N_F. When N_F cal O(1), the statistical significance can be approximately calculated by Variance of lensing effects, which is directly related to the power spectrum among other moments of matter distribution.

Offline evaluation of search systems depends on test collections. These benchmarks provide the researchers with a corpus of documents, topics and relevance judgements indicating which documents are relevant for each topic. While test collections are an integral part of Information Retrieval (IR) research, their creation involves significant efforts in manual annotation. Large language models (LLMs) are gaining much attention as tools for automatic relevance assessment. Recent research has shown that LLM-based assessments yield high systems ranking correlation with human-made judgements. These correlations are helpful in large-scale experiments but less informative if we want to focus on top-performing systems. Moreover, these correlations ignore whether and how LLM-based judgements impact the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to human assessments. In this work, we look at how LLM-generated judgements preserve ranking differences among top-performing systems and also how they preserve pairwise significance evaluation as human judgements. Our results show that LLM-based judgements are unfair at ranking top-performing systems. Moreover, we observe an exceedingly high rate of false positives regarding statistical differences. Our work represents a step forward in the evaluation of the reliability of using LLMs-based judgements for IR evaluation. We hope this will serve as a basis for other researchers to develop more reliable models for automatic relevance assessment.

Accurate forecasting of electrical demand is essential for maintaining a stable and reliable power grid, optimizing the allocation of energy resources, and promoting efficient energy consumption practices. This study investigates the effectiveness of five hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms -- Random Search, Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA--ES), Bayesian Optimization, Partial Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Nevergrad Optimizer (NGOpt) across univariate and multivariate Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) tasks. Using the Panama Electricity dataset (n=48,049), we evaluate HPO algorithms' performances on a surrogate forecasting algorithm, XGBoost, in terms of accuracy (i.e., MAPE, R^2) and runtime. Performance plots visualize these metrics across varying sample sizes from 1,000 to 20,000, and Kruskal--Wallis tests assess the statistical significance of the performance differences. Results reveal significant runtime advantages for HPO algorithms over Random Search. In univariate models, Bayesian optimization exhibited the lowest accuracy among the tested methods. This study provides valuable insights for optimizing XGBoost in the STLF context and identifies areas for future research.

Prompt engineering has emerged as a powerful technique for optimizing large language models (LLMs) for specific applications, enabling faster prototyping and improved performance, and giving rise to the interest of the community in protecting proprietary system prompts. In this work, we explore a novel perspective on prompt privacy through the lens of membership inference. We develop Prompt Detective, a statistical method to reliably determine whether a given system prompt was used by a third-party language model. Our approach relies on a statistical test comparing the distributions of two groups of model outputs corresponding to different system prompts. Through extensive experiments with a variety of language models, we demonstrate the effectiveness of Prompt Detective for prompt membership inference. Our work reveals that even minor changes in system prompts manifest in distinct response distributions, enabling us to verify prompt usage with statistical significance.

This study examines the efficacy of various neural network (NN) models in interpreting mental constructs via electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. Through the assessment of 16 prevalent NN models and their variants across four brain-computer interface (BCI) paradigms, we gauged their information representation capability. Rooted in comprehensive literature review findings, we proposed EEGNeX, a novel, purely ConvNet-based architecture. We pitted it against both existing cutting-edge strategies and the Mother of All BCI Benchmarks (MOABB) involving 11 distinct EEG motor imagination (MI) classification tasks and revealed that EEGNeX surpasses other state-of-the-art methods. Notably, it shows up to 2.1%-8.5% improvement in the classification accuracy in different scenarios with statistical significance (p < 0.05) compared to its competitors. This study not only provides deeper insights into designing efficient NN models for EEG data but also lays groundwork for future explorations into the relationship between bioelectric brain signals and NN architectures. For the benefit of broader scientific collaboration, we have made all benchmark models, including EEGNeX, publicly available at (https://github.com/chenxiachan/EEGNeX).

Drama script continuation requires models to maintain character consistency, advance plot coherently, and preserve dramatic structurecapabilities that existing benchmarks fail to evaluate comprehensively. We present DramaBench, the first large-scale benchmark for evaluating drama script continuation across six independent dimensions: Format Standards, Narrative Efficiency, Character Consistency, Emotional Depth, Logic Consistency, and Conflict Handling. Our framework combines rulebased analysis with LLM-based labeling and statistical metrics, ensuring objective and reproducible evaluation. We conduct comprehensive evaluation of 8 state-of-the-art language models on 1,103 scripts (8,824 evaluations total), with rigorous statistical significance testing (252 pairwise comparisons, 65.9% significant) and human validation (188 scripts, substantial agreement on 3/5 dimensions). Our ablation studies confirm all six dimensions capture independent quality aspects (mean | r | = 0.020). DramaBench provides actionable, dimensionspecific feedback for model improvement and establishes a rigorous standard for creative writing evaluation.

This paper presents a general scheme for enhancing the convergence and performance of DETR (DEtection TRansformer). We investigate the slow convergence problem in transformers from a new perspective, suggesting that it arises from the self-attention that introduces no structural bias over inputs. To address this issue, we explore incorporating position relation prior as attention bias to augment object detection, following the verification of its statistical significance using a proposed quantitative macroscopic correlation (MC) metric. Our approach, termed Relation-DETR, introduces an encoder to construct position relation embeddings for progressive attention refinement, which further extends the traditional streaming pipeline of DETR into a contrastive relation pipeline to address the conflicts between non-duplicate predictions and positive supervision. Extensive experiments on both generic and task-specific datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Under the same configurations, Relation-DETR achieves a significant improvement (+2.0% AP compared to DINO), state-of-the-art performance (51.7% AP for 1x and 52.1% AP for 2x settings), and a remarkably faster convergence speed (over 40% AP with only 2 training epochs) than existing DETR detectors on COCO val2017. Moreover, the proposed relation encoder serves as a universal plug-in-and-play component, bringing clear improvements for theoretically any DETR-like methods. Furthermore, we introduce a class-agnostic detection dataset, SA-Det-100k. The experimental results on the dataset illustrate that the proposed explicit position relation achieves a clear improvement of 1.3% AP, highlighting its potential towards universal object detection. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/xiuqhou/Relation-DETR.

Text to speech (TTS) has made rapid progress in both academia and industry in recent years. Some questions naturally arise that whether a TTS system can achieve human-level quality, how to define/judge that quality and how to achieve it. In this paper, we answer these questions by first defining the human-level quality based on the statistical significance of subjective measure and introducing appropriate guidelines to judge it, and then developing a TTS system called NaturalSpeech that achieves human-level quality on a benchmark dataset. Specifically, we leverage a variational autoencoder (VAE) for end-to-end text to waveform generation, with several key modules to enhance the capacity of the prior from text and reduce the complexity of the posterior from speech, including phoneme pre-training, differentiable duration modeling, bidirectional prior/posterior modeling, and a memory mechanism in VAE. Experiment evaluations on popular LJSpeech dataset show that our proposed NaturalSpeech achieves -0.01 CMOS (comparative mean opinion score) to human recordings at the sentence level, with Wilcoxon signed rank test at p-level p >> 0.05, which demonstrates no statistically significant difference from human recordings for the first time on this dataset.

Mutation testing is an effective approach to evaluate and strengthen software test suites, but its adoption is currently limited by the mutants' execution computational cost. Several strategies have been proposed to reduce this cost (a.k.a. mutation cost reduction strategies), however none of them has proven to be effective for all scenarios since they often need an ad-hoc manual selection and configuration depending on the software under test (SUT). In this paper, we propose a novel multi-objective evolutionary hyper-heuristic approach, dubbed Sentinel, to automate the generation of optimal cost reduction strategies for every new SUT. We evaluate Sentinel by carrying out a thorough empirical study involving 40 releases of 10 open-source real-world software systems and both baseline and state-of-the-art strategies as a benchmark. We execute a total of 4,800 experiments, and evaluate their results with both quality indicators and statistical significance tests, following the most recent best practice in the literature. The results show that strategies generated by Sentinel outperform the baseline strategies in 95% of the cases always with large effect sizes. They also obtain statistically significantly better results than state-of-the-art strategies in 88% of the cases, with large effect sizes for 95% of them. Also, our study reveals that the mutation strategies generated by Sentinel for a given software version can be used without any loss in quality for subsequently developed versions in 95% of the cases. These results show that Sentinel is able to automatically generate mutation strategies that reduce mutation testing cost without affecting its testing effectiveness (i.e. mutation score), thus taking off from the tester's shoulders the burden of manually selecting and configuring strategies for each SUT.

The wording of natural language prompts has been shown to influence the performance of large language models (LLMs), yet the role of politeness and tone remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate how varying levels of prompt politeness affect model accuracy on multiple-choice questions. We created a dataset of 50 base questions spanning mathematics, science, and history, each rewritten into five tone variants: Very Polite, Polite, Neutral, Rude, and Very Rude, yielding 250 unique prompts. Using ChatGPT 4o, we evaluated responses across these conditions and applied paired sample t-tests to assess statistical significance. Contrary to expectations, impolite prompts consistently outperformed polite ones, with accuracy ranging from 80.8% for Very Polite prompts to 84.8% for Very Rude prompts. These findings differ from earlier studies that associated rudeness with poorer outcomes, suggesting that newer LLMs may respond differently to tonal variation. Our results highlight the importance of studying pragmatic aspects of prompting and raise broader questions about the social dimensions of human-AI interaction.

With the growing presence of multilingual users on social media, detecting abusive language in code-mixed text has become increasingly challenging. Code-mixed communication, where users seamlessly switch between English and their native languages, poses difficulties for traditional abuse detection models, as offensive content may be context-dependent or obscured by linguistic blending. While abusive language detection has been extensively explored for high-resource languages like English and Hindi, low-resource languages such as Telugu and Nepali remain underrepresented, leaving gaps in effective moderation. In this study, we introduce a novel, manually annotated dataset of 2 thousand Telugu-English and 5 Nepali-English code-mixed comments, categorized as abusive and non-abusive, collected from various social media platforms. The dataset undergoes rigorous preprocessing before being evaluated across multiple Machine Learning (ML), Deep Learning (DL), and Large Language Models (LLMs). We experimented with models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Neural Networks (NN), LSTM, CNN, and LLMs, optimizing their performance through hyperparameter tuning, and evaluate it using 10-fold cross-validation and statistical significance testing (t-test). Our findings provide key insights into the challenges of detecting abusive language in code-mixed settings and offer a comparative analysis of computational approaches. This study contributes to advancing NLP for low-resource languages by establishing benchmarks for abusive language detection in Telugu-English and Nepali-English code-mixed text. The dataset and insights can aid in the development of more robust moderation strategies for multilingual social media environments.

In the domain of medical imaging, many supervised learning based methods for segmentation face several challenges such as high variability in annotations from multiple experts, paucity of labelled data and class imbalanced datasets. These issues may result in segmentations that lack the requisite precision for clinical analysis and can be misleadingly overconfident without associated uncertainty quantification. We propose the PULASki for biomedical image segmentation that accurately captures variability in expert annotations, even in small datasets. Our approach makes use of an improved loss function based on statistical distances in a conditional variational autoencoder structure (Probabilistic UNet), which improves learning of the conditional decoder compared to the standard cross-entropy particularly in class imbalanced problems. We analyse our method for two structurally different segmentation tasks (intracranial vessel and multiple sclerosis (MS) lesion) and compare our results to four well-established baselines in terms of quantitative metrics and qualitative output. Empirical results demonstrate the PULASKi method outperforms all baselines at the 5\% significance level. The generated segmentations are shown to be much more anatomically plausible than in the 2D case, particularly for the vessel task. Our method can also be applied to a wide range of multi-label segmentation tasks and and is useful for downstream tasks such as hemodynamic modelling (computational fluid dynamics and data assimilation), clinical decision making, and treatment planning.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have emerged as a powerful framework in the realm of generative modeling, offering a unique perspective that aligns closely with principles of statistical mechanics. This review aims to provide physicists with a comprehensive understanding of EBMs, delineating their connection to other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Normalizing Flows. We explore the sampling techniques crucial for EBMs, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and draw parallels between EBM concepts and statistical mechanics, highlighting the significance of energy functions and partition functions. Furthermore, we delve into state-of-the-art training methodologies for EBMs, covering recent advancements and their implications for enhanced model performance and efficiency. This review is designed to clarify the often complex interconnections between these models, which can be challenging due to the diverse communities working on the topic.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Urban and transportation research has long sought to uncover statistically meaningful relationships between key variables and societal outcomes such as road safety, to generate actionable insights that guide the planning, development, and renewal of urban and transportation systems. However, traditional workflows face several key challenges: (1) reliance on human experts to propose hypotheses, which is time-consuming and prone to confirmation bias; (2) limited interpretability, particularly in deep learning approaches; and (3) underutilization of unstructured data that can encode critical urban context. Given these limitations, we propose a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM)-based approach for interpretable hypothesis inference, enabling the automated generation, evaluation, and refinement of hypotheses concerning urban context and road safety outcomes. Our method leverages MLLMs to craft safety-relevant questions for street view images (SVIs), extract interpretable embeddings from their responses, and apply them in regression-based statistical models. UrbanX supports iterative hypothesis testing and refinement, guided by statistical evidence such as coefficient significance, thereby enabling rigorous scientific discovery of previously overlooked correlations between urban design and safety. Experimental evaluations on Manhattan street segments demonstrate that our approach outperforms pretrained deep learning models while offering full interpretability. Beyond road safety, UrbanX can serve as a general-purpose framework for urban scientific discovery, extracting structured insights from unstructured urban data across diverse socioeconomic and environmental outcomes. This approach enhances model trustworthiness for policy applications and establishes a scalable, statistically grounded pathway for interpretable knowledge discovery in urban and transportation studies.

The focus of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Machine Learning (ML) methods for two-sample testing with right-censored observations. To achieve this, we develop several ML-based methods with varying architectures and implement them as two-sample tests. Each method is an ensemble (stacking) that combines predictions from classical two-sample tests. This paper presents the results of training the proposed ML methods, examines their statistical power compared to classical two-sample tests, analyzes the distribution of test statistics for the proposed methods when the null hypothesis is true, and evaluates the significance of the features incorporated into the proposed methods. All results from numerical experiments were obtained from a synthetic dataset generated using the Smirnov transform (Inverse Transform Sampling) and replicated multiple times through Monte Carlo simulation. To test the two-sample problem with right-censored observations, one can use the proposed two-sample methods. All necessary materials (source code, example scripts, dataset, and samples) are available on GitHub and Hugging Face.

Meeting the increasing global demand for food security and sustainable farming requires intelligent crop recommendation systems that operate in real time. Traditional soil analysis techniques are often slow, labor-intensive, and not suitable for on-field decision-making. To address these limitations, we introduce AgroSense, a deep-learning framework that integrates soil image classification and nutrient profiling to produce accurate and contextually relevant crop recommendations. AgroSense comprises two main components: a Soil Classification Module, which leverages ResNet-18, EfficientNet-B0, and Vision Transformer architectures to categorize soil types from images; and a Crop Recommendation Module, which employs a Multi-Layer Perceptron, XGBoost, LightGBM, and TabNet to analyze structured soil data, including nutrient levels, pH, and rainfall. We curated a multimodal dataset of 10,000 paired samples drawn from publicly available Kaggle repositories, approximately 50,000 soil images across seven classes, and 25,000 nutrient profiles for experimental evaluation. The fused model achieves 98.0% accuracy, with a precision of 97.8%, a recall of 97.7%, and an F1-score of 96.75%, while RMSE and MAE drop to 0.32 and 0.27, respectively. Ablation studies underscore the critical role of multimodal coupling, and statistical validation via t-tests and ANOVA confirms the significance of our improvements. AgroSense offers a practical, scalable solution for real-time decision support in precision agriculture and paves the way for future lightweight multimodal AI systems in resource-constrained environments.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing is the de facto tool for assessing effectiveness differences between Information Retrieval systems. Researchers use statistical tests to check whether those differences will generalise to online settings or are just due to the samples observed in the laboratory. Much work has been devoted to studying which test is the most reliable when comparing a pair of systems, but most of the IR real-world experiments involve more than two. In the multiple comparisons scenario, testing several systems simultaneously may inflate the errors committed by the tests. In this paper, we use a new approach to assess the reliability of multiple comparison procedures using simulated and real TREC data. Experiments show that Wilcoxon plus the Benjamini-Hochberg correction yields Type I error rates according to the significance level for typical sample sizes while being the best test in terms of statistical power.

We introduce FailureSensorIQ, a novel Multi-Choice Question-Answering (MCQA) benchmarking system designed to assess the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to reason and understand complex, domain-specific scenarios in Industry 4.0. Unlike traditional QA benchmarks, our system focuses on multiple aspects of reasoning through failure modes, sensor data, and the relationships between them across various industrial assets. Through this work, we envision a paradigm shift where modeling decisions are not only data-driven using statistical tools like correlation analysis and significance tests, but also domain-driven by specialized LLMs which can reason about the key contributors and useful patterns that can be captured with feature engineering. We evaluate the Industrial knowledge of over a dozen LLMs-including GPT-4, Llama, and Mistral-on FailureSensorIQ from different lens using Perturbation-Uncertainty-Complexity analysis, Expert Evaluation study, Asset-Specific Knowledge Gap analysis, ReAct agent using external knowledge-bases. Even though closed-source models with strong reasoning capabilities approach expert-level performance, the comprehensive benchmark reveals a significant drop in performance that is fragile to perturbations, distractions, and inherent knowledge gaps in the models. We also provide a real-world case study of how LLMs can drive the modeling decisions on 3 different failure prediction datasets related to various assets. We release: (a) expert-curated MCQA for various industrial assets, (b) FailureSensorIQ benchmark and Hugging Face leaderboard based on MCQA built from non-textual data found in ISO documents, and (c) LLMFeatureSelector, an LLM-based feature selection scikit-learn pipeline. The software is available at https://github.com/IBM/FailureSensorIQ.

This paper presents UniBERT, a compact multilingual language model that leverages an innovative training framework integrating three components: masked language modeling, adversarial training, and knowledge distillation. Pre-trained on a meticulously curated Wikipedia corpus spanning 107 languages, UniBERT is designed to reduce the computational demands of large-scale models while maintaining competitive performance across various natural language processing tasks. Comprehensive evaluations on four tasks -- named entity recognition, natural language inference, question answering, and semantic textual similarity -- demonstrate that our multilingual training strategy enhanced by an adversarial objective significantly improves cross-lingual generalization. Specifically, UniBERT models show an average relative improvement of 7.72% over traditional baselines, which achieved an average relative improvement of only 1.17%, with statistical analysis confirming the significance of these gains (p-value = 0.0181). This work highlights the benefits of combining adversarial training and knowledge distillation to build scalable and robust language models, thereby advancing the field of multilingual and cross-lingual natural language processing.