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214
A recent essay in Scientific American argued that scientists “tend to underestimate the severity of threats and the rapidity with which they might unfold” and said one of the reasons was “the perceived need for consensus.”
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Consciousness:135", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Consciousness", "evidence": "After the conference, they signed in the presence of Stephen Hawking, the 'Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness', which summarizes the most important findings of the survey: \"We decided to reach a ...
216
[The 1990 IPCC report said] that the Antarctic ice sheets were stable
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Cryosphere:139", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Cryosphere", "evidence": "The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is stable so long as the Ross Ice Shelf is constrained by drag along its lateral boundaries and pinned by local grounding.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ ...
220
Hurricane Harvey gave Houston and the surrounding region a $125 billion lesson about the costs of misjudging the potential for floods
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Houston:735", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Houston", "evidence": "\"Hurricane Harvey was year's costliest U.S. disaster at $125 billion in damages\".", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", "SUPPORTS", null, null, null ] }, { "ev...
230
In the early 2000s, ice shelves began disintegrating in several parts of Antarctica, and scientists realized that process could greatly accelerate the demise of the vastly larger ice sheets themselves.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Antarctica:354", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Antarctica", "evidence": "Recent decades have witnessed several dramatic collapses of large ice shelves around the coast of Antarctica, especially along the Antarctic Peninsula.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", ...
235
The planet’s average ground temperature has risen by around 1.62F (0.9C)
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Earth:111", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Earth", "evidence": "At the center, the temperature may be up to 6,000 °C (10,830 °F), and the pressure could reach 360 GPa (52 million psi).", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT...
236
global temperatures have risen between 0.23F (0.13C) and 0.34F (0.19C) per decade
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Global warming:146", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Global warming", "evidence": "Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUG...
237
However the warming trend is slower than most climate models have forecast
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Global cooling:5", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Global cooling", "evidence": "The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, w...
240
In 1990 the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that temperatures would rise by 0.54F (0.3C) per decade.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Global warming controversy:224", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Global warming controversy", "evidence": "Models referenced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 19...
243
In its 5th assessment report in 2013, the IPCC estimated that human emissions are probably responsible for more than half of the observed increase in global average temperature from 1951 to 2010.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere:73", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere", "evidence": "In the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report the increase in CO2 was estimated to be responsible for 1.82 W·m2 of the 2.63 W·m2 change in radiative forcing on Earth...
244
But it means a chunk of the rise is coming from elsewhere.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Portable Network Graphics:43", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Portable Network Graphics", "evidence": "If lowercase, the chunk may be safely copied regardless of the extent of modifications to the file.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH...
246
at the end of recent ice ages, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to rise only after temperatures began to climb.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere:5", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere", "evidence": "Concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere were as high as 4,000 parts per million (ppm, on a molar basis) during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ...
248
But by far the largest greenhouse gas is water vapour, which makes 95 per cent of the total.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Greenhouse gas:10", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Greenhouse gas", "evidence": "The most common gases in Earth's atmosphere are nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%), and argon (0.9%).", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ null, "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", ...
250
CO2 is not powerful in that sense, the only thing it does in the system is make the planet greener.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Captain Planet and the Planeteers:133", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Captain Planet and the Planeteers", "evidence": "Captain Pollution is weakened when he is in contact with pure elements such as clean water or sunlight, while he gains power from contact with pollutants, being...
254
it’s virtually impossible to get funded for work that disputes climate change through other channels [other than oil companies]
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate change denial:1029", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climate change denial", "evidence": "\"Dirty Money, Oil Companies and Special Interests Spend Millions to Oppose Climate Legislation\".", "entropy": 0.6365141868591309, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "...
256
One of the main areas of contention is the existence of two strange climate episodes known as The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Little Ice Age:0", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Little Ice Age", "evidence": "The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", null...
257
The MWP lasted from about 950 to 1250AD, and temperature records appear to show it was even hotter than today
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Medieval Warm Period:0", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Medieval Warm Period", "evidence": "The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) also known as the Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region lasting from c. 950 to c. 12...
258
But the period has caused a headache for climate scientists because clearly there was no upswell in carbon dioxide that could account for such swift warming.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Eocene:110", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Eocene", "evidence": "The cause of the warming is considered to be primarily due to carbon dioxide increases, because carbon isotope signatures rule out major methane release during this short term warming.", "entropy": 0.6931471824...
261
in 1995 one scientist at the IPCC – Jonathan Overpeck – wrote an email to a colleague claiming ‘we have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.’
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Hockey stick controversy:31", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Hockey stick controversy", "evidence": "This was the basis of a \"schematic diagram\" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report of 1990 beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global.", "ent...
263
it later emerged that its creator Dr Michael Mann had spliced too [sic] datasets together – tree-rings showing temperatures going back hundreds of years, then recent thermometer readings for the more recent decades.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Climatic Research Unit documents:59", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climatic Research Unit documents", "evidence": "He said that there was nothing \"hidden or inappropriate\" about it, and that his method of combining proxy data had been corroborated by numerous statistical test...
266
The IPCC no longer includes the ‘Hockey stick’ chart in its reports.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:17", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", "evidence": "Besides the Sixth Assessment Report, to be completed in 2022, the IPCC released the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C in October 2018, r...
267
Yet a study published just this week, by the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Bergen, Norway, found that the natural climate system can change abruptly, without the need for any external forces.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research:0", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research", "evidence": "The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research is a climate research centre in Bergen, Norway.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "...
268
Some scientists believe that solar activity is more likely to influence today’s climate than carbon dioxide, and Dr Soon has compiled data showing temperature in America, Canada and Mexico rises and falls in line with solar activity.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Attribution of recent climate change:200", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Attribution of recent climate change", "evidence": "Another line of evidence against the sun having caused recent climate change comes from looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atm...
272
The melting ice has led to global sea level rise of around eight inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Greenland ice sheet:35", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Greenland ice sheet", "evidence": "The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced record melting in recent years since detailed records have been kept and is likely to contribute substantially to sea level rise as well as to possib...
275
until temperature increases began to slow down after 1998 and remained relatively stable for a period of 15 years
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Global warming:22", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Global warming", "evidence": "Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", null, null, null ] ...
279
In one particularly damning email, CRU director Phil Jones said he had used ‘Mike’s Nature trick’ to ‘hide the decline’ in temperatures in the second half of the 20th century.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Climatic Research Unit email controversy:43", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Climatic Research Unit email controversy", "evidence": "Many commentators quoted one email in which Phil Jones said that he had used \"Mike's Nature trick\" in a 1999 graph for the World Meteorological O...
281
In an interview with the BBC after the scandal broke, Dr Jones admitted there had been no statistically significant global warming since 1995
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Climatic Research Unit email controversy:134", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Climatic Research Unit email controversy", "evidence": "The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) reaffirmed its position on global warming and \"expressed grave concerns that the i...
282
The panel was forced to retract a statement in its 2007 report saying all Himalayan glaciers could melt entirely by 2035.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:24", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Criticism of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report", "evidence": "A paragraph in the 938-page 2007 Working Group II report (WGII) included a projection that Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035."...
284
The figure traditionally cited that suggests 97 per cent of climate scientists agree that global warming is man-made was also found to be flawed.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate change denial:127", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climate change denial", "evidence": "Several researchers have concluded that around 97% of climate scientists agree with this consensus.", "entropy": 1.0986123085021973, "votes": [ "REFUTES", "SUPPORTS...
287
Climate skeptics argue temperature records have been adjusted in recent years to make the past appear cooler and the present warmer, although the Carbon Brief showed that NOAA has actually made the past warmer, evening out the difference.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Effects of global warming:16", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Effects of global warming", "evidence": "It is a major aspect of climate change, and has been demonstrated by the instrumental temperature record which shows global warming of around 1 °C since the pre-industrial perio...
293
When the measuring equipment gets old and needs replacing, it often requires re-calibration.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Heat flux sensor:89", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Heat flux sensor", "evidence": "While heat flux sensors are typically supplied with a sensitivity by the manufacturer, there are times and situations that call for a re-calibration of the sensor.", "entropy": 0.562335133552...
294
A global network of 500 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Emergency management:350", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Emergency management", "evidence": "TIEMS is a Global Forum for Education, Training, Certification and Policy in Emergency and Disaster Management.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", ...
296
The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Little Ice Age:181", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Little Ice Age", "evidence": "1660), and Laki (1783).", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", null, "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO" ] }, { "evidence...
298
Only very few peer-reviewed papers even go so far as to say that recent warming is chiefly anthropogenic.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Global warming:276", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Global warming", "evidence": "In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of g...
302
In addition, [climate models] ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate change mitigation:22", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climate change mitigation", "evidence": "These include carbon dioxide (chemical formula: CO 2), methane (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2O), and a group of gases referred to as halocarbons.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ ...
305
There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying[…] floods
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Effects of global warming:59", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Effects of global warming", "evidence": "Such events will continue to occur more often and with greater intensity.", "entropy": 0.5623351335525513, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "N...
306
There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying[…] droughts
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Effects of global warming:188", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Effects of global warming", "evidence": "Some evidence suggests that droughts have been occurring more frequently because of global warming and they are expected to become more frequent and intense in Africa, southern...
307
For instance, wind turbines kill birds and insects, and palm-oil plantations destroy the biodiversity of the rainforests
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Deforestation:103", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Deforestation", "evidence": "Forests support biodiversity, providing habitat for wildlife; moreover, forests foster medicinal conservation.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", "REFUTES", ...
310
[data] show only slight warming, mostly at night and in winter
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Cloud:328", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Cloud", "evidence": "The water reacts by radiating, also in the infrared, both upward and downward, and the downward longwave radiation results in increased warming at the surface.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INF...
311
there has been no systematic increase in the frequency of extreme weather events,
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate change adaptation:20", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climate change adaptation", "evidence": "This causes a variety of secondary effects, namely, changes in patterns of precipitation, rising sea levels, altered patterns of agriculture, increased extreme weather events, t...
313
Let’s find out by comparing the actual temperatures since 1979 with what the 32 families of climate models used in the latest U.N. report on climate science predicted they would be.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Effects of global warming on humans:94", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Effects of global warming on humans", "evidence": "There have been prediction models of temperature created to project the effects of global warming on the planet.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NO...
316
the models predicted seven times as much warming as has been observed
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Deforestation:57", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Deforestation", "evidence": "The model predicted <0.2 °C warming for upper air at 700 mb and 500 mb.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ null, "REFUTES", "REFUTES", null, null ] }, { "evide...
319
Most of the atmospheric moisture originates in the tropical ocean, and the difference between surface and upper atmospheric temperature determines how much of the moisture rises into the atmosphere.
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Extratropical cyclone:40", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Extratropical cyclone", "evidence": "The peak time of subtropical cyclogenesis (the midpoint of this transition) in the North Atlantic is in the months of September and October, when the difference between the temperature ...
320
Globally averaged thermometers show two periods of warming since 1900: a half-degree from natural causes in the first half of the 20th century, before there was an increase in industrial carbon dioxide that was enough to produce it, and another half-degree in the last quarter of the century.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "20th century:6", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "20th century", "evidence": "The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) since 1880; Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20 °C per decade.",...
322
The first adjustment changed how the temperature of the ocean surface is calculated, by replacing satellite data with drifting buoys and temperatures in ships’ water intake.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Instrumental temperature record:62", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Instrumental temperature record", "evidence": "The sea record consists of surface ships taking sea temperature measurements from engine inlets or buckets.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", ...
331
But each serial adjustment has tended to make the early years colder, which increases the warming trend.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Global cooling:114", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Global cooling", "evidence": "The RSS satellite temperature record showed a slight cooling trend, but the UAH satellite temperature record showed a slight warming trend.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ ...
332
Shelters in poorer countries are not repainted as often, and darker stations absorb more of the sun’s energy.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Australian residential architectural styles:201", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Australian residential architectural styles", "evidence": "Darker colours were originally used but, as the years went by, new brighter paint served as a welcoming change to open up the spaces and bri...
335
Last month was the hottest June ever recorded, European satellite agency announces
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "2014 in science:254", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "2014 in science", "evidence": "Globally, June 2014 was the hottest June since records began in 1880, according to latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ ...
337
temperatures were 6-10C above normal over most of France, Germany and northern Spain during the final days of the month, according to C3S.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Berlin:143", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Berlin", "evidence": "Temperatures can be 4 °C (7 °F) higher in the city than in the surrounding areas.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", null, "NOT...
338
Rapid assessment of average temperatures in France between 26-28 June showed a “substantial” increase in the likelihood of the heatwave happening as a result of human-caused global warming, experts at the World Weather Attribution group said.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Attribution of recent climate change:131", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Attribution of recent climate change", "evidence": "(2012) concluded that human activities had likely led to a warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale.", "entropy":...
340
Heatwaves occur in any climate, but we know that heatwaves are becoming much more likely due to climate change.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate change, industry and society:36", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Climate change, industry and society", "evidence": "Heatwaves Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", "SUPPORTS", null, ...
342
While members of the media may nod along to such claims [about changes in weather extremes], the evidence paints a different story
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Attribution of recent climate change:110", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Attribution of recent climate change", "evidence": "As noted, clear and compelling scientific evidence supports the case for a pronounced human influence on global climate.", "entropy": 0.69314718246459...
343
They concluded that trends toward rising climate damages were mainly due to increased population and economic activity in the path of storms, that it was not currently possible to determine the portion of damages attributable to greenhouse gases, and that they didn’t expect that situation to change in the near future.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:237", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", "evidence": "Among other findings, the report concluded that sea level rises could be up to two feet higher by the year 2100, even if efforts to reduce green...
344
Globally there’s no clear evidence of trends and patterns in extreme events such as droughts, hurricanes and floods.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "El Niño–Southern Oscillation:9", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "El Niño–Southern Oscillation", "evidence": "The extremes of this climate pattern's oscillations cause extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, ...
348
There’s no trend in hurricane-related flooding in the U.S.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "2008 Atlantic hurricane season:158", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "2008 Atlantic hurricane season", "evidence": "Widespread heavy rainfall contributed to significant inland flooding from Louisiana into Arkansas.", "entropy": 0.6365141868591309, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOU...
349
Nor is there evidence of an increase in floods globally.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Effects of global warming on human health:396", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Effects of global warming on human health", "evidence": "With the increase in temperatures worldwide due to climate change the increase in flooding is unavoidable.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ ...
350
Since 1965, more parts of the U.S. have seen a decrease in flooding than have seen an increase.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Effects of global warming:232", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Effects of global warming", "evidence": "More than 90 US coastal cities are already experiencing chronic flooding and that number is expected to double by 2030.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "REFUTES", ...
351
And from 1940 to today, flood damage as a percentage of GDP has fallen to less than 0.05 per cent per year from about 0.2 per cent.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Assam:249", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Assam", "evidence": "According to the recent estimates, Assam's per capita GDP is ₹6,157 at constant prices (1993–94) and ₹10,198 at current prices; almost 40% lower than that in India.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUG...
353
The bottom line is there’s no solid connection between climate change and the major indicators of extreme weather
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Physical impacts of climate change:369", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Physical impacts of climate change", "evidence": "“The bottom line is that things are not that complicated,” Dr. Knutti said.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO...
356
This requires us to work towards avoiding catastrophic possibilities rather than looking at probabilities, as learning from mistakes is not an option when it comes to existential risks.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Futures studies:183", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Futures studies", "evidence": "\"Wild cards\" refer to low-probability and high-impact events, such as existential risks.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ null, "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "SUPPORTS"...
357
With that in mind, they propose a plausible and terrifying “2050 scenario” whereby humanity could face irreversible collapse in just three decades.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Mind Meld:0", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Mind Meld", "evidence": "Mind Meld: Secrets Behind the Voyage of a Lifetime is a 2001 American documentary film in which actors William Shatner and Leonard Nimoy discuss the Star Trek science fiction franchise and its effects on their ...
358
Their analysis calculates the existential climate-related security risk to Earth through a scenario set 30 years into the future.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Environmental sociology:152", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Environmental sociology", "evidence": "They analyze the past 30 years of environmentalism and the different outcomes that the green movement has taken in different state contexts and cultures.", "entropy": 0.6365141...
362
North America suffers extreme weather events including wildfires, drought, and heatwaves.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves:269", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves", "evidence": "The drought and heat wave combined to make wild fires inevitable.", "entropy": 1.0397207736968994, "votes": [ "REFUTES", "SUPPORTS", ...
363
Monsoons in China fail, the great rivers of Asia virtually dry up, and rainfall in central America falls by half.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate of Asia:37", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climate of Asia", "evidence": "The monsoon accounts for 80% of the rainfall in India[citation needed].", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", null, null, null ]...
365
The knock-on consequences affect national security, as the scale of the challenges involved, such as pandemic disease outbreaks, are overwhelming.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Bioterrorism:51", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Bioterrorism", "evidence": "These high-priority agents pose a risk to national security, can be easily transmitted and disseminated, result in high mortality, have potential major public health impact, may cause public panic, or re...
366
Armed conflicts over resources may become a reality, and have the potential to escalate into nuclear war.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Cold War:19", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Cold War", "evidence": "The Soviets suppressed the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, and later more escalating crises occurred, such as the Suez Crisis (1956), the Berlin Crisis of 1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, which was perha...
368
The most recent IPCC report lays out a future if we limit global heating to 1.5°C instead of the Paris Agreement’s 2°C.
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Global warming:263", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Global warming", "evidence": "In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep climate change well below 2 °C.", "entropy": 0.6365141868591309, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "SUPPOR...
369
By 2050 there’s a scientific consensus that we reached the tipping point for ice sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Sea level rise:121", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Sea level rise", "evidence": "A study published in 2017 concluded that Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps crossed an irreversible tipping point around 1997, and will continue to melt.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [...
373
Like countless other organ­isms, we move and adapt when the environment changes.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Human impact on the environment:0", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Human impact on the environment", "evidence": "Human impact on the environment or anthropogenic impact on the environment includes changes to biophysical environments and ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural reso...
375
when 3 per cent of total annual global emissions of carbon dioxide are from humans and Australia prod­uces 1.3 per cent of this 3 per cent, then no amount of emissions reductio­n here will have any effect on global climate.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Agriculture:220", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Agriculture", "evidence": "The 2011 UNEP Green Economy report states that \"[a]agricultural operations, excluding land use changes, produce approximately 13 per cent of anthropogenic global GHG emissions.", "entropy": 0, "v...
376
whenever in the past there was an explosion of plant life, the carbon dioxide content was far higher than at present.
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Botany:129", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Botany", "evidence": "The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today is much lower than it was when plants emerged onto land during the Ordovician and Silurian periods.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", ...
377
If we halve the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, all life dies.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Atmosphere of Earth:2", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Atmosphere of Earth", "evidence": "By volume, dry air contains 78.09% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.04% carbon dioxide, and small amounts of other gases.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ "NO...
378
for thousands of millions of years the Earth has been changing, with cycles­ and one-off events such as an asteroid impact, super-volcano or a supernova explosion.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Earth:137", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Earth", "evidence": "Tectonics and erosion, volcanic eruptions, flooding, weathering, glaciation, the growth of coral reefs, and meteorite impacts are among the processes that constantly reshape Earth's surface over geological time.", ...
381
[subsidies for wind and solar] add to emissions because coal-fired elec­tricity needs to be on standby for when there is no wind or sunshine.
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Energy subsidy:106", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Energy subsidy", "evidence": "Though in 2007 some suggested that a subsidy shift would help to level the playing field and support growing energy sectors, namely solar power, wind power, and bio-fuels., by 2017 those sources com...
382
The amount of energy used to construct solar and wind facilities is greater than they produce in their working lives.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Net metering:353", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Net metering", "evidence": "The energy can be generated from a variety of renewable sources including solar, wind, and hydro.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ "REFUTES", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", null...
383
“As soon as renewables were introduced into the grid, electric­ity prices increased and delivery became unreliable.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Electrical grid:108", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Electrical grid", "evidence": "Electrical energy is stored during times when production (especially from intermittent power plants such as renewable electricity sources such as wind power, tidal power, solar power) exceeds cons...
386
Renew­ables such as wind turbines are environmentally disastrous because they pollute a huge land area, slice and dice birds and bats, kill insects that are bird food, create health problems for humans who live within kilometres of them, leave toxins around the turbine site and despoil the landscape.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Environmental impact of wind power:105", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Environmental impact of wind power", "evidence": "Fossil-fueled power plants, which wind turbines generally require to make up for their weather dependent intermittency, kill almost 20 times as many birds per...
388
We have also been told the problem is DEFINITELY NOT a billions-year-old planet running through cycles where the temperature might fluctuate a bit.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Earth:214", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Earth", "evidence": "Each layer has a different lapse rate, defining the rate of change in temperature with height.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", null, null, null ...
390
there were no ice sheets covering either Greenland or West Antarctica, and much of the East Antarctic ice sheet was gone.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Antarctica:368", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Antarctica", "evidence": "The mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near to balance.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ null, "REFUTES", ...
392
a study that totally debunks the whole concept of man-made Global Warming
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Attribution of recent climate change:131", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Attribution of recent climate change", "evidence": "(2012) concluded that human activities had likely led to a warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale.", "entropy":...
398
nothing we can do to stop the Earth’s naturally occurring climate cycles.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Earth:54", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Earth", "evidence": "High-latitude regions have since undergone repeated cycles of glaciation and thaw, repeating about every 40,000–100,000 years.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", "SUPPORTS", null, n...
399
Climate Change ‘Heat Records’ Are a Huge Data Manipulation
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Climatology:34", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climatology", "evidence": "The study of contemporary climates incorporates meteorological data accumulated over many years, such as records of rainfall, temperature and atmospheric composition.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, ...
400
The idea that climate change is producing heat records across the Earth is among the most egregious manipulations of data in the absurd global warming debate.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Attribution of recent climate change:0", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Attribution of recent climate change", "evidence": "Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming and related climate changes ...
401
On Feb. 7, several major newspapers carried stories of the declaration by NASA and NOAA that the past five years have been the warmest on record.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Instrumental temperature record:16", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Instrumental temperature record", "evidence": "In January 2017, several scientific agencies around the world, including NASA and the NOAA in the United States and the Met Office in the United Kingdom, named 2016 ...
404
Actual weather records over the past 100 years show no correlation between rising carbon dioxide levels and local temperatures.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Global cooling:5", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Global cooling", "evidence": "The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, w...
409
as time progresses and fossil fuel emissions increase, the number of record highs should increase and record lows should decrease.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Global warming:62", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Global warming", "evidence": "These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data have been collected from ice cores.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUG...
412
From 1970 until 1998 there was a warming period that raised temperatures by about 0.7 F that helped spawn the global warming alarmist movement.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Eocene:94", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Eocene", "evidence": "These isotope changes occurred due to the release of carbon from the ocean into the atmosphere that led to a temperature increase of 4-8 °C (7-14 °F) at the surface of the ocean.", "entropy": 0.6365141868591309,...
413
However, since 1998, little warming has occurred while carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase.
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Carbon dioxide:21", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Carbon dioxide", "evidence": "Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming....
418
describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Coral bleaching:43", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Coral bleaching", "evidence": "During this period, 19 percent of coral reefs worldwide were lost, and 60 percent of the remaining reefs are at immediate risk of being lost.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "SUPPORTS", ...
419
But the heads of small island nations, fearful of rising sea levels, had also asked scientists to examine the effects of 2.7 degrees of warming.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Effects of global warming:150", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Effects of global warming", "evidence": "In 2015, a study by Professor James Hansen of Columbia University and 16 other climate scientists said a sea level rise of three metres could be a reality by the end of the cen...
420
International Energy Agency, a global analysis organization, “continue to see a role for coal for the foreseeable future.”
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "International Energy Agency:105", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "International Energy Agency", "evidence": "This publication on renewable energy – \"which is now the fastest growing sector of the energy mix and accounts for almost a fifth of all electricity produced worldwide – w...
424
Duffy pointed out that his chart was from a single tide gauge station, near San Francisco, and that sea levels rise at different rates around the world
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "1906 San Francisco earthquake:24", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "1906 San Francisco earthquake", "evidence": "An offshore epicenter is supported by the occurrence of a local tsunami recorded by a tide gauge at the San Francisco Presidio; the wave had an amplitude of approximatel...
428
Brooks added that Antarctic ice is growing.
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Antarctic ice sheet:12", "evidence_label": 0, "article": "Antarctic ice sheet", "evidence": "The glaciation was favored by an interval when the Earth's orbit favored cool summers but oxygen isotope ratio cycle marker changes were too large to be explained by Antarctic ice-sheet gro...
430
“But there are plenty of studies that have come that show with respect to Antarctica that the total ice sheet, particularly that above land, is increasing, not decreasing.
3DISPUTED
[ { "evidence_id": "Antarctica:1046", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Antarctica", "evidence": "\"A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic\".", "entropy": 1.0986123085021973, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUG...
432
Climate scientists use the 20th-century average as a benchmark for global temperature measurements.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate:0", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climate", "evidence": "Climate is the long-term average of weather, typically averaged over a period of 30 years.", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ null, "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "SUPPORTS", null, ...
434
It’s also a sufficiently long period to include several cycles of climate variability.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Climate variability:67", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Climate variability", "evidence": "Another longer-term near-millennial oscillation involves the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, occurring on roughly 1,500-year cycles during the last glacial maximum.", "entropy": 0.6365141868...
435
NOAA’s analysis found last month was the 3rd-warmest April on record globally.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "2015 in science:286", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "2015 in science", "evidence": "21 July The latest global analysis of temperature data from NOAA shows that the first half of 2015 was the hottest such period on record, at 0.85 °C (1.53 °F) above the 20th century average, surpa...
436
The unusual heat was most noteworthy in Europe, which had its warmest April on record, and Australia, which had its second-warmest.
0SUPPORTS
[ { "evidence_id": "Australia:1011", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Australia", "evidence": "\"Australia's extreme heat is sign of things to come, scientists warn\".", "entropy": 0.6931471824645996, "votes": [ "REFUTES", "SUPPORTS", null, null, null ] }, ...
441
For the year-to-date, the Earth is seeing its 5th-warmest start to the year.
2NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
[ { "evidence_id": "Earth:74", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Earth", "evidence": "Earth's increasing surface temperature will accelerate the inorganic carbon cycle, reducing CO 2 concentration to levels lethally low for plants (10 ppm for C4 photosynthesis) in approximately 100–900 million years.",...
442
There is no empirical evidence that increasing greenhouse gases are the primary cause of Global Warming
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Global warming:276", "evidence_label": 1, "article": "Global warming", "evidence": "In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of g...
443
“Today climate scientists are obsessed with the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a very very small part of the overall picture.
1REFUTES
[ { "evidence_id": "Greenhouse gas:127", "evidence_label": 2, "article": "Greenhouse gas", "evidence": "Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels.", "entropy": 0, "votes": [ "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", "NOT_ENOUGH_INFO", ...